№ 01Will Warren throws fastballs 66.6% of the time, and Hunter Feduccia has posted a .342 xwOBA against fastballs across 76 plate appearances this season.
№ 02Feduccia is hitting .381 against right-handed changeups over 24 plate appearances, giving him a second pitch shape he handles well.
№ 03Warren's swinging-strike and strikeout rates have both slipped below his own baseline, softening the whiff risk in this matchup.
№ 04The away bullpen has logged 210 pitches over the last three days, so tired arms are likely to follow Warren once he exits.
№ 05The counter is real: Feduccia has 4 hits in 27 at-bats over his last 10 games and just a .077 mark against right-handed curveballs.
§ 01The analysis
The lean starts with pitch mix. Will Warren throws fastballs 66.6% of the time, and Hunter Feduccia has run a .342 xwOBA against fastballs across 76 plate appearances this season. That is the pitch he sees most and the pitch he handles best, and Warren is going to keep serving it. When Warren goes soft, Feduccia has hit .381 against right-handed changeups over 24 plate appearances. Warren's own profile has softened too, with his swinging-strike and strikeout rates both slipping under his baseline while his season strikeout rate sits at 24.0% and his xERA at 4.05 across 89.3 innings. If the game turns to relief, the away bullpen has already burned 210 pitches over the last three days. The risk is honest. Feduccia has just 4 hits in 27 at-bats over his last 10 games, is hitting .227 on the season with a 0.61 OPS, and has a .077 average against right-handed curveballs over 13 plate appearances. Warren's 3.49 FIP and Tropicana Field's 0.92 run environment also argue against the number.
§ 02The call
The core of the bet is a matchup fit: a fastball-heavy right-hander whose stuff has ticked down, facing a hitter carrying a .342 xwOBA on fastballs and a .381 average against right-handed changeups. Add a bullpen already at 210 pitches over three days, and the paths to a hit widen once Warren is out of the game. The recent slump and the 0.92 park environment are legitimate drags at +105, but the pitch-shape edge and the reliever fatigue are the reasons to take Feduccia over 0.5 hits.
Final resultWINHunter Feduccia OVER 0.5 Hits · +105 Graded Jul 8, 2026