№ 01Drew Rasmussen throws 80.7% fastballs, and Ryan McMahon owns a .365 xwOBA against fastballs across 121 plate appearances this season, a direct pitch-mix edge.
№ 02Rasmussen has been fading over his last 5 starts, with his most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones in that stretch.
№ 03McMahon has hit .268 against right-handed four-seamers over 46 plate appearances, matching up with what Rasmussen leans on most heavily.
№ 04The counter: Rasmussen carries a 3.17 xERA over 97.0 innings and a 3.12 FIP, and has held lefties to a .215 average across 228 matchups.
№ 05Tropicana Field runs a 0.92 run environment, and closer Bryan Baker's 1.73 ERA over 36.3 relief innings shortens any late-game window.
§ 01The analysis
The pitch-mix pocket here is doing the heavy lifting. Drew Rasmussen throws 80.7% fastballs, and Ryan McMahon has posted a .365 xwOBA against fastballs across 121 plate appearances this season. McMahon has also hit .268 against right-handed four-seamers over 46 plate appearances, which is the exact pitch he should see most often. Layer in that Rasmussen has visibly faded across his last 5 starts, his most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones, and there's a live path to a hit at plus money. The honest risk is real. Rasmussen's season line is strong: a 3.17 xERA over 97.0 innings, a 3.12 FIP, a 24.3% strikeout rate, and a .215 average allowed to left-handed batters across 228 matchups. His swinging-strike and K rates are also running ahead of his own baseline. McMahon himself is hitting .210 on the season with a 0.63 OPS.206 against righties, and 5 hits in his last 24 at-bats. Tropicana Field's 0.92 run environment doesn't help, and Bryan Baker's 1.73 ERA over 36.3 innings closes the door late.
§ 02The call
The bet is a targeted pitch-matchup play at plus money: McMahon's .365 xwOBA on fastballs squares directly into Rasmussen's 80.7% fastball diet, and Rasmussen's recent form has been trending the wrong way over 5 starts. The overall season profile still belongs to the pitcher, with a 3.17 xERA, a 3.12 FIP, and a .215 mark against lefties, and the venue plus Baker's bullpen anchor tilt run-scoring down. At +104, one hit clears it, and the pitch-mix edge is the reason to take it.
Final resultWINRyan McMahon OVER 0.5 Hits · +104 Graded Jul 9, 2026