№ 01Bellinger is hitting .272 with a 0.84 OPS across 239 at-bats this season, and his bat plays up against righties at a 0.85 OPS in 194 plate appearances.
№ 02Trey Yesavage throws 78.5% fastballs, and Bellinger carries a .389 xwOBA against fastballs across 187 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Yesavage's ERA has jumped to 5.91 in his most recent two starts after sitting at 1.50 in the older two of his last five — the trend is moving the wrong way.
№ 04Yesavage has walked 19 batters across 42.7 innings for a 4.0 BB/9, placing him in the bottom tier of the league for command.
№ 05Rogers Centre carries a 1.02 home run factor for left-handed hitters this season, giving Bellinger a neutral-to-friendly backdrop for an extra-base hit.
§ 01The analysis
The bet leans on a matchup edge. Yesavage throws 78.5% fastballs, and Bellinger has punished fastballs to the tune of a .389 xwOBA across 187 plate appearances. Add in a 0.85 OPS against right-handed pitching over 194 plate appearances and a .273 average versus righties, and Bellinger profiles as a tough at-bat in this spot. Yesavage's recent form helps too — his ERA has climbed to 5.91 across his most recent two starts after a 1.50 mark in the older two of his last five, and his 4.0 BB/9 keeps him in the bottom tier for command. The counter is real. Yesavage owns a 3.16 ERA and a 2.98 FIP on the year, and left-handed hitters are batting just .194 against him across 98 matchups. If the game tightens up late, Louis Varland and his 0.50 ERA across 35.7 relief innings make extra production hard to come by. But at +145 with a 1.02 HR park factor for lefties, Bellinger only needs one extra-base hit or a multi-hit day to cash.
§ 02The call
Take Bellinger over 1.5 total bases at +145. The pitch-mix matchup is the anchor — a fastball-heavy starter facing a left-handed bat with a .389 xwOBA against fastballs, inside a park that gives lefties a 1.02 HR factor. Yesavage's command sits at 4.0 BB/9 and his last two starts have produced a 5.91 ERA, which opens the door for hard contact and free passes early. The price reflects the risk of Yesavage's 3.16 ERA and Varland in the back, but the matchup edge is the right side.
Final resultWINCody Bellinger OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +145 Graded Jun 13, 2026