№ 01Trey Yesavage is trending the wrong direction inside his last 5 starts, with a 5.91 ERA over his two most recent versus 1.50 in the older two.
№ 02Yesavage has walked 19 batters in 42.7 innings for a 4.0 BB/9, putting his command in the bottom tier of the league.
№ 03Chisholm has cooled off with just 6 hits in 38 at-bats over his last 10 games, the main reason this number is even sitting at -141.
№ 04Yesavage still carries a 3.16 ERA and 2.98 FIP on the year, so this is not a soft matchup on paper outside of the recent slide.
№ 05Even if Chisholm reaches base early, Louis Varland and his 0.50 ERA across 35.7 innings cap any late-game opportunity at the plate.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Chisholm clearing 0.5 hits leans on the pitcher more than the hitter. Yesavage's ERA has jumped to 5.91 across his two most recent starts after sitting at 1.50 in the two before that, and his 4.0 BB/9 over 42.7 innings reflects shaky command that hands hitters free counts to work with. That matters because Chisholm has been cold, with only 6 hits in 38 at-bats over his last 10 games, and he is hitting .232 on the year with a .70 OPS in 180 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. The counter is real. Yesavage's full-season 3.16 ERA and 2.98 FIP are strong, he has held left-handed batters to a .194 average across 98 matchups, and his last-5 FIP of 3.44 says the peripherals are still in order. Rogers Centre plays as a neutral 1.00 run environment. The bet is essentially asking whether one base hit shows up in four or five trips against a starter whose recent results and walk rate are slipping, and the model thinks the price is well behind the true rate.
§ 02The call
The market is pricing Chisholm over 0.5 hits at -141, which implies a 58.5% chance he records at least one hit. The recent slump and Yesavage's headline season numbers are reasons the line is not higher, but they are not enough to close the gap. Play Chisholm over 0.5 hits.
Final resultWINJazz Chisholm Jr. OVER 0.5 Hits · -141 Graded Jun 12, 2026