№ 01Ryan McMahon has 8 hits in 25 at-bats over his last 10 games, a stretch of contact that lines up well with an over 0.5 hits price.
№ 02Trey Yesavage throws 78.5% fastballs, and McMahon carries a .349 xwOBA against fastballs across 104 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Yesavage is trending the wrong way inside his last 5 starts, with a 5.91 ERA in his two most recent outings versus 1.50 in the older two.
№ 04Yesavage has walked 19 batters across 42.7 innings for a 4.0 BB/9, putting him in the bottom tier of the league for command.
№ 05The counter is McMahon's full season at .217 with a 0.64 OPS, and Yesavage's 3.16 ERA backed by a 2.98 FIP.
§ 01The analysis
This bet leans on the version of Ryan McMahon showing up over the last 10 games, where he has gone 8 for 25 at the plate. The pitch-mix fit helps. Trey Yesavage throws 78.5% fastballs, and McMahon carries a .349 xwOBA against fastballs across 104 plate appearances this season. Yesavage's surface line is strong with a 3.16 ERA and a 2.98 FIP across 42.7 innings, and he has held left-handed batters to a .194 average across 98 matchups, so the matchup is not a clean push. But the recent trend cuts the other way for the starter. Over his last 5 starts, his ERA has climbed from 1.50 in the older two to 5.91 in the most recent two. He has also walked 19 batters across 42.7 innings, a 4.0 BB/9 that sits in the bottom tier of the league for command. McMahon's full season at .217 with a 0.64 OPS is the real drag on this ticket, and Louis Varland's 0.50 ERA caps late at-bats. Rogers Centre plays as a neutral 1.00 run environment.
§ 02The call
The path is the recent contact stretch and the fastball-heavy matchup against a starter with command issues and a worsening trend, even with the season-long numbers and Yesavage's headline ERA pushing back. At even money, the price does not respect how reachable one hit is in this spot. Take McMahon over 0.5 hits at +100.
Final resultLOSSRyan McMahon OVER 0.5 Hits · +100 Graded Jun 13, 2026