№ 01Will Warren's last five starts show a clear downward trend: a 3.72 ERA in his earlier outings has ballooned to a 7.71 ERA in his most recent ones.
№ 02The home lineup has been swinging hot bats over the last seven days, averaging 6.2 runs per game, and ranks 3 of 30 in team OPS.
№ 03Warren leans on his fastball 66.5% of the time, and the opposing lineup carries a .361 xwOBA against fastballs across 1982 plate appearances.
№ 04Cavalli throws 52.6% fastballs into a group posting a .350 xwOBA against heaters over 2041 plate appearances, with the away side ranked 7 of 30 in OPS.
№ 05The counter: Cavalli's last five have flipped the other way, a 5.87 ERA early falling to a 2.89 ERA recently, with swinging-strike and K stuff trending up.
§ 01The analysis
The case for the over starts with Will Warren's trajectory. Across his last five outings the arrow is pointing hard down, a 3.72 ERA in the earlier starts jumping to a 7.71 ERA in the most recent ones, and his swinging-strike and strikeout stuff are trending down on the season as well. The home offense has been the beneficiary of those kinds of arms lately, averaging 6.2 runs per game over the last seven days and sitting 3 of 30 in team OPS, with a lineup trending up against right-handed pitching over 676 plate appearances this year. Warren's shape plays into that too: 66.5% fastballs into a group carrying a .361 xwOBA against fastballs over 1982 plate appearances. The other side of the matchup offers a similar profile. Cade Cavalli throws 52.6% fastballs, and even an away lineup missing Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton still ranks 7 of 30 in OPS and posts a .350 xwOBA against fastballs across 2041 plate appearances. Nationals Park runs a 1.02 environment this year, a neutral-plus backdrop for a day game where Warren carries a 4.25 xERA and Cavalli a 4.13 xERA.
§ 02The call
The honest risk is Cavalli. His last five starts trend the opposite direction of Warren's, a 5.87 ERA in the earlier outings tightening to a 2.89 ERA in the most recent ones, and his swinging-strike and K stuff are trending up. His FIP sits at 2.96, the home catcher is stealing 0.8 called strikes per 100 taken pitches, and the away side is missing Judge and Stanton while trending down against righties over 591 plate appearances. Take Over 9 at -119.
Final resultLOSSOver 9 -119 · -119 Graded Jul 12, 2026