№ 01Griffin Conine is hitting .266 with a 0.89 OPS across 109 at-bats, giving him a real offensive profile to attack this matchup with.
№ 02Against right-handed pitching Conine has posted a 0.99 OPS in 103 plate appearances, and he is hitting .289 off righties this year.
№ 03Over the last 30 days Conine owns a 22.2% barrel rate against right-handed changeups in 19 plate appearances, punishing that pitch shape.
№ 04Aaron Nola carries a 5.03 FIP, and over his most recent 5 starts that peripheral has climbed to 5.66 across 27.7 innings.
№ 05First pitch at loanDepot park is 81°F with the wind blowing out to right at 16 mph, warm air and a tailwind for a lefty bat.
§ 01The analysis
The lead here is Griffin Conine's bat profile. He is hitting .266 with a 0.89 OPS across 109 at-bats, and the split that matters tonight is even louder: a 0.99 OPS in 103 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, plus a .289 average versus righties. Over the last 30 days he has run a 22.2% barrel rate against right-handed changeups in 19 plate appearances, which is exactly the kind of pitch Aaron Nola leans on. Nola brings a 5.03 FIP into the start, and his last 5 outings have been worse, a 5.66 FIP across 27.7 innings. The environment stacks on top of that. First pitch is 81°F at loanDepot park with the wind blowing out to right at 16 mph, warm air and a lefty-friendly tailwind. Park factors are neutral to slightly helpful, a 1.02 run environment and a 0.98 home run factor for left-handed hitters. Recent form checks out too, with 8 hits in 30 at-bats over his last 10 games. Nola's 4.33 xERA in 108.3 innings and improved whiff rate say he could tighten up.
§ 02The call
The risk is real. Nola's contact quality has been sharper than his runs allowed suggest, his swinging-strike and strikeout rates are ahead of his baseline, and if Conine does not get to him early, closer Jhoan Duran and his 2.04 ERA over 35.3 relief innings are waiting late. The bet is that Conine sees enough of Nola in a hitter's environment to get one ball in play with authority. The matchup, the split, the barrel data on changeups, and the weather all point the same direction at -135.
Final resultWINGriffin Conine OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -135 Graded Jul 29, 2026