№ 01Aaron Nola's xERA of 4.35 sits below his 5.86 ERA, meaning the contact he is allowing has been better than his run totals suggest.
№ 02Across Nola's last 5 starts, his ERA in the two most recent is 6.75 versus 10.38 in the older two, showing he is trending in the right direction.
№ 03Jhoan Duran anchors the late innings with a 1.99 ERA across 22.7 innings and 17 saves on the season.
№ 04Philly carries a 53 form score against left-handed pitching across 285 plate appearances, which lines up with left-handed starter Shane Drohan.
№ 05Our side has gone 7-3 over its last 10 games, and the opposing team is without Brandon Lockridge on the 10-day injured list.
§ 01The analysis
This price reflects a real gap on paper. Shane Drohan owns a 3.11 ERA across 37.7 innings with a 2.70 FIP, while Aaron Nola sits on a 5.86 ERA over 66.0 innings. The home offense is also running hot, with an 84 form score over the last 7 days and 8.0 runs per game in that window, against our offense's -50 form mark and 28 of 30 OPS rank at 0.68. We are not pretending those are small things. The case for the away side comes from underlying numbers. Nola's 4.35 xERA tracks well below his ERA, and within his last 5 starts the two most recent outings sit at 6.75 versus 10.38 in the older pair. The bullpen runs through Jhoan Duran at 1.99 over 22.7 innings, with 17 saves on the board. The Phillies also carry a 53 form score versus left-handers across 285 plate appearances, and American Family Field plays to a 0.94 run environment that takes some of the air out of the home offense's recent scoring.
§ 02The call
Take the away ML at +149. The market is pricing Nola off his 5.86 ERA, but his 4.35 xERA and his last two starts at 6.75 suggest the underlying form is better than the headline. A left-handed starter lines up with a 53 form score from Philadelphia's against lefties, Duran is there in the ninth at 1.99 with 17 saves, and the park environment of 0.94 caps the home side's recent scoring run. At plus money with a 7-3 record over the last 10, this is the side to back.