№ 01Frelick has 9 hits in 29 at-bats over his last 10 games, a clear uptick from his .232 season average across 207 at-bats.
№ 02Aaron Nola is carrying a 5.86 ERA across 66.0 innings, with a 4.21 FIP that still sits well above league average.
№ 03Frelick is 1-for-10 in 10 career plate appearances against Nola, the main counter to taking this number.
№ 04Nola throws 54.0% fastballs and Frelick owns just a .289 xwOBA against fastballs across 170 plate appearances this season.
№ 05American Family Field carries a 0.94 run environment but a 1.00 home run factor for left-handed hitters, a neutral backdrop for extra-base contact.
§ 01The analysis
This bet leans on Frelick's recent form running into a starter who has been hit hard all year. Over his last 10 games, Frelick has 9 hits in 29 at-bats, a stretch that stands apart from his .232 season line and 0.62 OPS. On the other side, Nola is sitting on a 5.86 ERA across 66.0 innings with a 4.21 FIP, and he is striking out 23.4% of batters - solid, but not enough to mask the damage. The counters are real. Frelick is 1-for-10 in 10 career plate appearances against Nola, and his .289 xwOBA against fastballs across 170 plate appearances is a soft spot given Nola's 54.0% fastball rate. Nola's xERA of 4.35 also hints his recent runs allowed are running ahead of his contact quality, and his last two starts have been better than the two before. American Family Field plays to a 0.94 run environment, though the 1.00 home run factor for left-handed hitters keeps extra-base outcomes in play.
§ 02The call
Take Frelick over 1.5 total bases at +163. The price reflects a hitter in a quiet season, but the recent window - 9 hits in 29 at-bats - lines up against a starter carrying a 5.86 ERA across 66.0 innings. The fastball matchup and small-sample head-to-head are honest counters, and Nola's peripherals suggest some regression is owed. At plus money, you only need one extra-base hit or a multi-single game to cash, and the recent contact pattern gives that path real runway. Lean over.
Final resultLOSSSal Frelick OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +163 Graded Jun 14, 2026