№ 01Miles Mikolas carries a 4.74 xERA across 74.0 innings with a 5.44 FIP, giving the away lineup room to score against him.
№ 02Mikolas is striking out only 14.3% of batters this season, meaning balls in play are the norm against him.
№ 03Aaron Nola throws 53.5% fastballs and the opposing lineup carries a .361 xwOBA against fastballs across 1640 plate appearances.
№ 04Both bullpens are taxed heading in, with the home pen at 256 pitches and the away pen at 207 pitches over the last three days.
№ 05Home offense has been trending down over the last 7 days at 3.0 runs per game, which is the clearest counter to the over.
§ 01The analysis
The starting pitching matchup tilts toward runs. Mikolas owns a 4.74 xERA over 74.0 innings and a 5.44 FIP, and his 14.3% strikeout rate means hitters put bats on his stuff. Nola is not a clean counter on the other side. His FIP sits at 4.63, and he throws 53.5% fastballs into a home lineup carrying a .361 xwOBA against fastballs across 1640 plate appearances, plus a 706 plate appearance sample trending up against right-handed pitching. If the starters get pulled, the relief picture stays friendly to scoring. The home bullpen has thrown 256 pitches over the last three days and leans on Gus Varland and his 5.16 ERA in leverage. The away pen sits at 207 pitches. The push back is real. The home offense is averaging 3.0 runs per game over the last 7 days, the away offense is cooling at 6.0, Mikolas has been sharpening over his last 5 starts, and Jhoan Duran's 1.75 ERA waits in the late innings. Even with that, the pitching profiles and tired pens give this total a path higher.
§ 02The call
Take the over 9.5 at +100. The matchup gives both lineups a workable starter, with Mikolas pitching to a 4.74 xERA and 5.44 FIP and Nola feeding fastballs into a lineup that hits them. Tired bullpens on both sides and a weak top leverage arm for the home club add to the late-inning path for runs. The home offense's 3.0 runs per game over the last 7 days is the cleanest concern, but the away side at 6.0 runs and the pitching profiles do enough lifting. Over 9.5 is the side.
Final resultLOSSOver 9.5 +100 · +100 Graded Jun 25, 2026