Key points — 5
- № 01Martín Pérez gives Atlanta the steadier arm tonight, posting a 2.79 ERA across 51.7 innings this season with a tidy 1.06 WHIP. His underlying peripherals are noisier, a 4.03 FIP and 4.33 xERA both sit well above the surface number, but the run prevention has been real.
- № 02Mitch Keller carries a 4.35 season ERA across 68.3 innings, but he arrives in a clear cold stretch. His last 5 starts have produced a bloated 6.59 ERA, and the trend is worsening, his most recent 2 starts at 7.20 ERA are worse than the older 2 at 6.17. His 3.25 FIP suggests better luck ahead, but the form score sits at -34.
- № 03Both offenses are scorching. Pittsburgh ranks 4 in OPS and has put up 8.4 runs per game over the last week with a 100 form score. Atlanta counters with a 3rd-ranked OPS, 5.6 runs per game lately, and a +76 form score. Two hot lineups argue for run-scoring, not suppression.
- № 04The bullpen edge belongs firmly to Atlanta. The Braves' pen ranks 2 in lightest league usage, with closer Raisel Iglesias sporting a microscopic 0.96 ERA and fully rested at 0 pitches yesterday. Pittsburgh's pen is among the most burned, ranked 26 after 10.67 innings over three days, with Yohan Ramírez unavailable.
- № 05Truist Park plays near neutral with a 1.02 run factor and a 1.05 HR factor, slightly amplifying lefty power at 1.10. Matt Olson's 0.945 OPS vs righties and Brandon Lowe's bat give both lineups left-handed thump that fits the yard.