№ 01Ryan Weathers leans on his fastball 45.5% of the time and Ozuna has punished that pitch for a .358 xwOBA across 163 plate appearances this season.
№ 02Weathers has been fading over his last 5 starts, with the most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones in that stretch.
№ 03Pittsburgh closer David Bednar is unavailable tonight after recent usage, softening the late-inning path for another Ozuna at-bat.
№ 04The Pirates bullpen has piled up 249 pitches over the last three days, putting them in heavier usage than typical heading in.
№ 05Counter: Ozuna is hitting just .206 on the season with a .62 OPS, and he whiffs on 56% of lefty changeups.
§ 01The analysis
The reason to take Ozuna over 0.5 hits at -137 starts with the matchup on the fastball. Ryan Weathers throws his heater 45.5% of the time, and Ozuna has posted a .358 xwOBA against fastballs across 163 plate appearances this year. That is the pitch he can still square, and the starter across from him keeps serving it up. Weathers has also been fading through his last 5 starts, with his most recent outings clearly worse than the earlier ones in the sample, even if his 1.94 FIP across 23.3 innings in that window looks tidy on the surface. Behind him, the path late is friendlier than usual: David Bednar is unavailable tonight after recent usage, and the Pirates pen has thrown 249 pitches over the last three days. Ozuna has been serviceable lately too, with 9 hits in 36 at-bats over his last 10 games. Yankee Stadium plays to a 1.00 run environment this season, so the park is neutral rather than a drag on the number.
§ 02The call
The risk is real. Ozuna is hitting .206 on the season with a .62 OPS across 228 at-bats, and against left-handed pitching he sits at .231 with a .73 OPS over 88 plate appearances. If Weathers leans on his changeup, Ozuna is at .125 with a 56% whiff rate on that pitch from lefties. Weathers has also held righties to a .214 average across 318 matchups. Still, the fastball usage, the recent fade, and the depleted Pittsburgh pen behind him carry the price.
Final resultWINMarcell Ozuna OVER 0.5 Hits · -137 Graded Jul 21, 2026