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Baseball · MLB ·

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Jackson Holliday OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Line
+195
Bet type
Prop
Status
LOSS
CLV
—
Key points — 5
  1. № 01Griffin Canning is running a 6.34 ERA across 32.7 innings, and his 5.03 FIP backs up the idea that the runs allowed aren't a fluke.
  2. № 02Holliday has put up a 0.84 OPS in 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this year while hitting .255 off righties.
  3. № 03Canning has walked 17 batters in 32.7 innings for a 4.7 BB/9, giving Holliday extra chances to work into hittable counts.
  4. № 04Camden Yards carries a 1.27 home run factor for left-handed hitters this season, and a first-pitch temperature of 84°F adds carry to fly balls.
  5. № 05Canning's last 5 starts produced a 5.63 FIP across 23.3 innings, and his form score of -33 reflects swinging-strike and K rates below his own baseline.

§ 01The analysis

The case for Holliday clearing 1.5 total bases starts with the matchup. Griffin Canning is carrying a 6.34 ERA and a 5.03 FIP across 32.7 innings, with a 4.7 BB/9 that ranks in the bottom tier for command and a 5.63 FIP across his last 5 starts. Holliday has handled righties this year, posting a 0.84 OPS and a .255 average against right-handed pitching in 60 plate appearances. Camden Yards plays up for left-handed power with a 1.27 HR factor, and 84°F air at first pitch helps the ball travel. The counters are real. Holliday has only 6 hits in his last 32 at-bats, and Canning's last two starts (3.60 ERA) look sharper than the older starts in his recent sample (12.15). Canning's 4.46 xERA also hints his ERA may be running hot. If Holliday gets to the bullpen, Mason Miller and his 0.94 ERA loom. Even with those drags, the underlying matchup, park, and weather profile point toward extra-base upside.

§ 02The call

At +195, the market is pricing Holliday to clear 1.5 total bases 33.9% of the time. The recent slump and Canning's improving trend within his last 5 starts are worth respecting, but they don't close a gap this wide. The price is doing more than enough work. Take Jackson Holliday OVER 1.5 total bases.

Final resultLOSSJackson Holliday OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +195
Graded Jun 13, 2026

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