№ 01Griffin Conine owns a 0.96 OPS in 97 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season, the platoon edge that anchors this over.
№ 02Walker Buehler has walked 40 batters across 94.7 innings for a 3.8 BB/9, putting his command in the bottom tier of the league.
№ 03Conine is hitting .282 against right-handed pitching this year, another line that lands squarely on Buehler's handedness.
№ 04Buehler's last 5 starts read 7.83 FIP over 22.0 innings, a stretch where the underlying quality has been genuinely poor.
№ 05The risk: Buehler's contact quality trails his runs allowed and his recent outings have been sharpening from earlier in the sample.
§ 01The analysis
Griffin Conine has beaten up right-handed pitching all season, running a 0.96 OPS across 97 plate appearances from that split, and he draws Walker Buehler in a day game at loanDepot park. Buehler's command has been the soft spot: 40 walks in 94.7 innings, a 3.8 BB/9 that sits in the bottom tier of the league. Conine's overall right-on-right work backs the matchup too, a .282 average against righties this year. Zoom in on Buehler's recent form and it looks worse, a 7.83 FIP over his last 22.0 innings across 5 starts. The broader profile fits: 4.24 FIP, 4.36 xERA over 94.7 innings, and a 20.7% strikeout rate that leaves the bat in play. Conine is hitting .262 on the season in 103 at-bats with a 0.86 OPS, and he's 8-for-30 over his last 10 games. The park plays neutral at a 1.02 run environment. The counter is real. Buehler's contact quality has been sharper than his ERA suggests, his recent outings have trended better than the earlier ones in the ugly stretch, and Mason Miller waits in the ninth with a 0.84 ERA over 42.7 innings.
§ 02The call
The core of this ticket is a hitter in form against his best split running into a starter whose command has slipped and whose last 5 starts carry a 7.83 FIP. Conine's 0.96 OPS versus righties and .282 average in the same split are the numbers driving the price. Buehler may tighten up given his contact quality, and Miller looms if the game stays close, but for a single hit against this version of Buehler, Conine over 0.5 at -135 is the side.
Final resultLOSSGriffin Conine OVER 0.5 Hits · -135 Graded Jul 27, 2026