№ 01Nootbaar is hitting .270 on the season with a 0.86 OPS across 37 at-bats, giving him a real base to clear 1.5 total bases.
№ 02Against right-handed pitching this season, Nootbaar is hitting .290 with a 0.86 OPS in 37 plate appearances, and he draws a right-hander today.
№ 03Over the last 30 days, Nootbaar has run a 15.4% barrel rate against right-handed four-seamers across 16 plate appearances.
№ 04Wind is blowing out to left at 22 mph at first pitch, an extra-base tailwind for a left-handed pull bat at Busch Stadium.
№ 05The counter is real - Bradgley Rodriguez carries a 2.16 ERA and a 2.71 FIP across 33.3 innings, so this isn't a soft matchup.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Nootbaar to clear 1.5 total bases starts with the season profile. He's hitting .270 with a 0.86 OPS over 37 at-bats, and the splits against right-handed pitching mirror that almost exactly - .290 with a 0.86 OPS across 37 plate appearances. The contact quality piece is what nudges this from a singles play into a doubles or homer play. Over the last 30 days, Nootbaar has barreled right-handed four-seamers at a 15.4% rate across 16 plate appearances. Add a 22 mph wind blowing out to left at first pitch and the extra-base path opens up, even with Busch Stadium sitting at a 0.89 home run factor for left-handed hitters. The counter is honest. Bradgley Rodriguez owns a 2.16 ERA across 33.3 innings and a 2.71 FIP backing it up, so this isn't a beatable arm by reputation. But Rodriguez is only striking out 16.7% of batters, which keeps the ball in play, and Nootbaar's recent 8-for-31 line shows he's been putting wood on it.
§ 02The call
Take Nootbaar over 1.5 total bases at +145. The path is straightforward - a left-handed bat with a 0.86 OPS against right-handed pitching, a 15.4% barrel rate on right-handed four-seamers over the last 30 days, and 22 mph of wind blowing out to left at first pitch. Rodriguez is a tough draw on ERA and FIP, but the 16.7% strikeout rate means contact is on the table, and one extra-base hit clears this number. The price gives plenty of room for a single bounce to pay.
Final resultLOSSLars Nootbaar OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +145 Graded Jun 17, 2026