№ 01Bradish's ERA has climbed to 4.09 over his last two starts versus 1.59 in the older two within his recent five-start window.
№ 02The home offense carries a 7-day form score of 82 and is averaging 6.3 runs per game over that stretch.
№ 03Woo throws 65.9% fastballs into a lineup posting a .374 xwOBA against fastballs across 1470 plate appearances, while Bradish's 50.3% fastball mix meets a .347 xwOBA group across 1596 plate appearances.
№ 04Wind is blowing out to right at 12 mph with a first-pitch temperature of 90°F, both pushing the ball further at Camden Yards.
№ 05Away closer Andrés Muñoz carries a 5.18 ERA, leaving the back end of Seattle's bullpen exposed if the game stays close late.
§ 01The analysis
The case for going over 8.5 starts with the right-handed matchups on both sides. Bradish has a 3.89 ERA across 69.3 innings but his ERA has jumped to 4.09 in his two most recent starts after sitting at 1.59 in the older pair, and his FIP of 4.20 says the surface line is generous. Woo brings a 3.74 ERA across 77.0 innings into a Baltimore lineup with an 82 form score against right-handed pitching this season across 724 plate appearances, and his 65.9% fastball usage runs straight into a .374 xwOBA group. The environment helps too, with wind blowing out to right at 12 mph and a first-pitch temperature of 90°F. Late-game leverage tilts toward runs as well, with Muñoz at 5.18 ERA for Seattle. The counter is real. Woo's 2.94 xERA and 2.88 FIP both sit under his ERA, and Rico Garcia has held a 1.29 ERA at the back of Baltimore's pen. Injuries hit both lineups. But the lineup quality, pitch-mix mismatches, and weather give enough cumulative push to clear the number.
§ 02The call
The market is pricing the over 8.5 at -107, an implied 51.7% chance. The model arrives at 61.7%, leaving a 10.0% edge once the offensive form, fastball matchups, weather, and Seattle's shaky late-game arm are weighed against Woo's better peripherals and Garcia's strong ERA. That gap is meaningful even allowing for some regression in Woo's direction. Take the over 8.5 at -107.
Final resultWINOver 8.5 -107 · -107 Graded Jun 12, 2026