№ 01Bryan Woo is trending the wrong way inside his last 5 starts, with a 5.25 ERA in his most recent two outings versus 3.09 in the older two.
№ 02The home offense has been heating up, averaging 6.0 runs per game over the last 7 days.
№ 03The home lineup has produced against right-handed pitching this season across a 725 plate-appearance sample, which lines up against a righty in Woo.
№ 04Woo leans on his fastball at a 65.8% clip, and the opposing lineup carries a .353 xwOBA against fastballs this season across 1724 plate appearances.
№ 05Top leverage arm Andrés Muñoz is running a 5.08 ERA on the away side, leaving late-game runs available if the score stays close.
§ 01The analysis
The case for the over starts with Bryan Woo trending in the wrong direction. Across his last 5 starts, his ERA in the most recent two sits at 5.25 versus 3.09 in the older two, and the matchup does him no favors. He throws 65.8% fastballs, and the opposing lineup carries a .353 xwOBA against fastballs this season over 1724 plate appearances. The home bats have also come alive, averaging 6.0 runs per game over the last 7 days, and the lineup has produced against right-handed pitching across a 725 plate-appearance sample. On the other side, Andrés Muñoz running a 5.08 ERA in the highest-leverage spot means a late-inning lead is not safe. The clear counter is Braxton Ashcraft, who carries a 3.18 ERA across 90.7 innings and could keep the away bats quiet for stretches. The home side is also missing Oneil Cruz, and Woo's xERA of 3.27 sitting below his 3.94 surface number suggests the runs allowed have outpaced his contact quality. Even with those caveats, the volume of run-scoring angles points up.
§ 02The call
Take the over 7.5 at -115. The cleanest reason is the matchup against Woo: his ERA has climbed inside the last 5 starts, his fastball-heavy mix runs straight into a lineup posting .353 xwOBA against the pitch, and the home offense is scoring 6.0 runs per game over the last week. Add in Muñoz's 5.08 ERA waiting in the late innings, and there are multiple credible paths to scoring on the away side of the ledger. Ashcraft is the real risk, but the run-scoring angles tip this toward the over.
Final resultWINOver 7.5 -115 · -115 Graded Jun 25, 2026