All picks

Baseball · MLB ·

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets

Author SkegBets editorialFiled Graded
Pick
Jimmy Crooks OVER 0.5 Hits
Line
+100
Bet type
Prop
Status
LOSS
CLV
—
Key points — 5
  1. № 01Jimmy Crooks faces Freddy Peralta, who has allowed 46 hits to 203 left-handed batters this season while struggling with a 4.4 ERA over his last five starts.
  2. № 02Peralta has surrendered 10 doubles and 1 triples to lefties, demonstrating particular vulnerability to contact from the left side of the plate.
  3. № 03The Mets bullpen carries a fatigue score of 43 after throwing 165 pitches over the past three days, increasing the likelihood Crooks will see middle-relief arms if Peralta exits early.
  4. № 04St. Louis enters with a bullpen fatigue score of just 10, suggesting manager confidence in extending at-bats and working counts against a Mets staff showing recent strain.
  5. № 05Citi Field's 0.96 run factor and 0.98 home run factor for left-handed batters create a neutral-to-favorable contact environment for Crooks to find gaps.

§ 01The analysis

Jimmy Crooks draws a favorable assignment against Freddy Peralta in a spot where the underlying numbers suggest contact opportunity. Peralta has faced 203 left-handed batters this season, allowing 46 hits and posting a 4.4 ERA over his last five outings. The right-hander's recent form shows declining command, evidenced by 12 walks against 31 strikeouts in that span, and he has surrendered 5 home runs. Peralta's platoon data reveals particular vulnerability to left-handed contact, with 10 doubles and 1 triples allowed. The Mets bullpen sits at a 43 fatigue score after throwing 165 pitches over three days across 6 appearances, ranking 23 in recent usage. That workload suggests early hooks if Peralta labors, exposing Crooks to middle-relief arms. Meanwhile, St. Louis carries a 10 fatigue score with just 115 pitches thrown over the same window, indicating fresh arms and managerial confidence to extend competitive at-bats.

§ 02The call

The case for Jimmy Crooks OVER 0.5 hits at +100 rests on a clear platoon advantage against a pitcher showing recent erosion. Peralta has allowed 46 hits to left-handed batters in 203 matchups this season, and his 4.4 ERA over five starts signals declining effectiveness. The Mets bullpen carries a 43 fatigue score after heavy recent usage, raising the probability Crooks will see relief arms if the game script turns. With Citi Field's 0.96 run factor providing a neutral backdrop, the structural edge lies in the platoon mismatch and fatigue differential.

Final resultLOSSJimmy Crooks OVER 0.5 Hits · +100
Graded Jun 10, 2026

Get the daily card before kickoff

Subscribe