№ 01Hunter Brown carries a 2.69 xERA across 25.3 innings this season, the anchor of the case for DeLuca finishing hitless.
№ 02Brown throws 61.9% fastballs and DeLuca owns just a .295 xwOBA against fastballs over 98 plate appearances this year.
№ 03Brown's 3.14 FIP backs up the run prevention, and he is punching out 29.9% of the batters he faces.
№ 04Late-inning insurance comes from Bryan King, who has a 2.19 ERA over 37.0 relief innings out of the bullpen.
№ 05DeLuca is hitting .258 against right-handers with a 0.68 OPS in 94 plate appearances, and 6-for-27 the last 10 games.
§ 01The analysis
The pillar here is Hunter Brown's 2.69 xERA through 25.3 innings, and the pitch mix funnels straight into DeLuca's weakness. Brown lives on the fastball at 61.9% usage, and DeLuca has managed only a .295 xwOBA against fastballs across 98 plate appearances this year. The peripherals hold up too: a 3.14 FIP overall, the same 3.14 FIP over his most recent 5 starts spanning 25.3 innings, and a 29.9% strikeout rate that keeps balls out of play. If a lead materializes, Bryan King and his 2.19 ERA across 37.0 relief innings close the door. DeLuca comes in hitting .260 on the season with a 0.73 OPS, and against righties specifically he is at .258 with a 0.68 OPS across 94 plate appearances. His recent form is thin as well, 6 hits in 27 at-bats over the last 10 games. Daikin Park plays neutral at a 1.00 run environment. The risk is real: Brown has been outpitching his contact quality and his last 5 starts show a fade, plus he has walked 13 hitters in 25.3 innings for a 4.6 BB/9.
§ 02The call
The path is clean. A high-strikeout righty with a 2.69 xERA and a 3.14 FIP, leaning on a fastball DeLuca has managed only a .295 xwOBA against, followed by a 2.19 ERA closer in a neutral park. DeLuca's .258 mark and 0.68 OPS versus right-handers, plus the 6-for-27 recent stretch, line up with the under. The honest counter is Brown's 4.6 BB/9 command and the late-start fade, either of which can gift DeLuca a cheap knock. At +123, the number holds value.
Final resultLOSSJonny Deluca UNDER 0.5 Hits · +123 Graded Jul 5, 2026