№ 01Nick Martínez carries a 4.71 xERA across 105.3 innings, so the contact he's allowing points to worse run prevention than his surface line suggests.
№ 02Martínez leans on fastballs 62.2% of the time, and Straw owns a .341 xwOBA against fastballs across 112 plate appearances this year.
№ 03Over Martínez's last 5 starts he has posted a 4.80 FIP across 27.7 innings, suggesting the underlying results have been slipping recently.
№ 04The counter is Straw's form: 2 hits in 17 at-bats over his last 10 games and a 0.62 OPS in 70 plate appearances versus righties.
№ 05Bryan Baker looms late with a 1.73 ERA over 36.3 relief innings, tightening the late-inning window if Straw doesn't cash off the starter.
§ 01The analysis
The lead here is Nick Martínez's 4.71 xERA across 105.3 innings. His 3.82 FIP looks tidy on the surface, but the contact quality against him argues his run prevention is due to regress, and the trend backs that up: 4.80 FIP across 27.7 innings over his most recent 5 starts. Martínez also throws 62.2% fastballs, which walks straight into Straw's best pitch group. Straw carries a .341 xwOBA against fastballs across 112 plate appearances this season, a meaningfully better profile than his overall .225 average and 0.61 OPS on 151 at-bats. Add in an away bullpen that has thrown 227 pitches over the last three days and Rogers Centre playing to a neutral 1.00 run environment, and the door to a hit is open. The risk is real. Straw has just 2 hits in 17 at-bats over his last 10 games, sits at a 0.62 OPS in 70 plate appearances versus right-handers, and is hitting .250 against righties overall. Martínez has also been sharpening within that 5-start window, with swinging-strike and K rates running ahead of his baseline.
§ 02The call
The pitcher-side edge is the reason to be here: a 4.71 xERA over 105.3 innings, a 4.80 FIP across the last 27.7 innings, and a fastball-heavy 62.2% mix that plays into Straw's .341 xwOBA against fastballs. Straw's slump and 0.62 OPS versus righties across 70 plate appearances is the honest drag, and Bryan Baker's 1.73 ERA over 36.3 innings shortens the late-game runway. One hit is a low bar with the matchup pointing this direction, and the price at -121 reflects that.
Final resultLOSSMyles Straw OVER 0.5 Hits · -121 Graded Jul 21, 2026