№ 01Payton Tolle throws fastballs 87.7% of the time, and Straw carries a .372 xwOBA against fastballs across 78 plate appearances this season.
№ 02Straw has posted a .465 xwOBA against left-handed sinkers across 11 plate appearances, giving him a real angle against Tolle's primary offering.
№ 03Tolle's composite form score sits at -29, with his swinging-strike and strikeout rates dropping below his own baseline.
№ 04Fenway Park is playing to a 1.10 run environment this season, a setting that helps balls find grass.
№ 05The counter is real - Tolle owns a 2.70 ERA, a 2.59 FIP, and has held right-handed hitters to a .188 average across 154 matchups.
§ 01The analysis
The angle here lives in the pitch mix. Tolle throws fastballs 87.7% of the time, and Straw carries a .372 xwOBA against fastballs across 78 plate appearances this season. On the secondary pitch, Straw has a .465 xwOBA versus left-handed sinkers across 11 plate appearances, so the limited variety Tolle offers plays directly into Straw's stronger swings. Tolle's composite form score is -29, with whiff and strikeout rates slipping below his own baseline, and Fenway Park's 1.10 run environment adds to the backdrop. The counter is loud. Tolle carries a 2.70 ERA across 53.3 innings, a 2.59 FIP, and has held right-handed hitters to a .188 average over 154 matchups, with a 2.55 FIP over his last five starts. Straw also brings a 0.60 OPS and .219 average against left-handed pitching, and Fenway's 0.90 home run factor for righties trims the long-ball path. The bet is not about power. It is about contact volume against a fastball-dominant arm whose form indicators are sliding.
§ 02The call
Take Myles Straw OVER 0.5 total bases at -108. The bet is built on Tolle's 87.7% fastball usage running into Straw's .372 xwOBA on fastballs across 78 plate appearances, with a .465 xwOBA against left-handed sinkers as a secondary lever. Tolle's -29 form score and Fenway's 1.10 run environment add support. The 2.70 ERA and .188 mark against righties are real counters, but a single hit clears this number, and the pitch-matchup edge is the cleanest read on the card.
Final resultLOSSMyles Straw OVER 0.5 Total Bases · -108 Graded Jun 17, 2026