№ 01Busch carries a .684 slugging against right-handed sinkers across 27 plate appearances, the kind of pitch shape that fits his swing.
№ 02Kevin Gausman throws 91.4% fastballs, and Busch owns a .393 xwOBA against fastballs over 203 plate appearances this year.
№ 03Gausman's ERA in his two most recent starts sits at 3.75 versus 1.54 in the older two within his last five, a worsening trend.
№ 04Busch carries a 25.0% barrel rate against right-handed changeups over the last 30 days across 16 plate appearances.
№ 05The counter is real — Gausman holds a 3.41 ERA over 87.0 innings with a 3.17 FIP, so this is priced at +178 for a reason.
§ 01The analysis
Busch enters with a .248 average and a 0.78 OPS on the season, and a 0.80 OPS in 227 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. The matchup is what makes this number playable. Gausman throws fastballs 91.4% of the time, and Busch has run a .393 xwOBA against fastballs across 203 plate appearances. Against right-handed sinkers specifically, Busch is slugging .684 in 27 plate appearances, and his barrel rate against right-handed changeups over the last 30 days sits at 25.0%. Gausman's recent form also trends the right way for the bet — his ERA across his two most recent starts is 3.75 versus 1.54 in the older two of his last five. The case against is straightforward. Gausman carries a 3.41 ERA and a 3.17 FIP, the Cubs have Louis Varland and his 0.90 ERA waiting late, and Wrigley Field is playing as a 0.94 run environment with a 0.95 home run factor for left-handed hitters. That is why the price is +178 rather than even money.
§ 02The call
Take Busch over 1.5 total bases at +178. The pitch-mix matchup is the anchor — a fastball-heavy starter against a hitter producing a .393 xwOBA against fastballs, with strong secondary numbers against right-handed sinkers and changeups. Gausman's two most recent starts also show a 3.75 ERA window inside his last five. The Wrigley run environment and Varland in the ninth are honest counters, and the plus price reflects that. At this number, the matchup edges line up with the payout.
Final resultLOSSMichael Busch OVER 1.5 Total Bases · +178 Graded Jun 19, 2026