№ 01Jacob Lopez has cratered lately, going from a 3.48 ERA in the earlier outings of his last five to a 17.18 ERA in the most recent ones.
№ 02Foster Griffin's 2.77 ERA hides a 3.85 xERA and a 5.98 FIP, pointing to run prevention that should regress in the wrong direction.
№ 03The away offense has poured in 13.0 runs per game over the last seven days, walking into a park playing to a 1.17 run environment.
№ 04Lopez leans on fastballs 59.9% of the time, and opposing hitters carry a .362 xwOBA against heaters across 2067 plate appearances this year.
№ 05Both staffs sit bottom-third in team ERA, with the home group 29 of 30 and the away group 27 of 30, and first pitch is 87°F.
§ 01The analysis
Jacob Lopez's last five starts tell the story. The earlier outings in that window carried a 3.48 ERA. The most recent ones sit at 17.18. The other side of the matchup is not much sturdier: Foster Griffin's shiny 2.77 ERA is dragged down by a 3.85 xERA and a 5.98 FIP, a wide enough gap to expect the run prevention to catch up to him. The away lineup arrives in form, banging out 13.0 runs per game over the last seven days, and it steps into Sutter Health Park, which plays to a 1.17 run environment this season. Lopez's shape does the visiting hitters a favor too, with a 59.9% fastball rate against a league carrying a .362 xwOBA on fastballs across 2067 plate appearances. His 16.0% strikeout rate leaves plenty of contact in play. Both staffs rank bottom-third in team ERA, home 29 of 30 and away 27 of 30, and first pitch is 87°F with warmer air helping the ball travel. The risk sits on the pitchers' side: Lopez's 6.83 ERA against a 3.90 xERA is a 2.93-run gap that argues for a correction, and the home bats have averaged just 2.5 runs per game over the last week.
§ 02The call
The pieces line up the same direction. A home starter whose recent ERA has ballooned to 17.18, an away starter whose 5.98 FIP undercuts the ERA, a visiting lineup dropping 13.0 runs a game, a park playing at 1.17, an 87°F first pitch, and two staffs stuck near the bottom of the league. The regression case for Lopez and the cold home bats at 2.5 runs per game are real, but the weight of the matchup pushes toward scoring. Over 10.5 at -108 is the side.
Final resultLOSSOver 10.5 -108 · -108 Graded Jul 19, 2026