№ 01Foster Griffin (2.12 ERA, 4-1) vs. Chase Burns (2.11 ERA, 4-1) is the tightest ERA matchup on Thursday's slate with both starters delivering quality starts consistently.
№ 02Cincinnati ranks dead last in MLB with a .219 team batting average and has scored just 5 runs over their last 10 games while losing key position players to injury.
№ 03Griffin has allowed one run across his last 20 innings over three straight starts, and Burns has permitted two runs or fewer in seven of eight outings.
№ 04The Reds' rotation and bullpen depth are compromised with six players on the injured list, including star shortstop Suárez, limiting their offensive ceiling in a low-scoring environment.
№ 05Washington's lineup, though competent, is fatigued after a 10-inning matinee win on Wednesday and faces a strikeout artist in Burns who thrives in the upper zone.
§ 01The analysis
This rubber-match finale pits two of the league's most consistent and dominant starters against each other in an ideal recipe for a low-scoring grinder. Foster Griffin's 2.12 ERA and recent stretch of one run allowed over his last 20 innings, combined with Chase Burns' elite 2.11 ERA and seven quality starts in eight appearances, creates a pitching-dominant environment. The critical factor is Cincinnati's offensive collapse: the Reds rank dead last in MLB batting average at .219 and have been outscored 19-5 over their last 10 games. Beyond the slump, Cincinnati is short-handed with six injured players, including key positional contributor Eugenio Suárez. While Great American Ball Park carries a hitter's-park reputation, that narrative only applies when hitters consistently make hard contact, the Reds are not doing so. Washington's lineup is marginally more competent but arrives exhausted after a 10-inning matinee victory on Wednesday. Both starters routinely work into the 6th or 7th inning, allowing bullpen exposure to remain minimal. The realistic game total should land between 5-7 runs, well below the posted 8.5.
§ 02The call
The Under 8.5 at -118 offers excellent value when considering the elite pitching matchup, Cincinnati's league-worst offense, and the Nationals' fatigue coming off a grueling 10-inning win. Both starters have demonstrated the ability to work deep into games while limiting runs, and the Reds' injury-depleted lineup simply lacks the offensive firepower to push the total in a matinee setting. The half-run buffer justifies the juice, and this game profiles to comfortably cash in the 5-7 run range.
Final resultLOSSUnder 8.5 · -118 Graded May 14, 2026