№ 01Robbie Ray's 5.07 xERA sits well above his 4.12 ERA, suggesting his contact-quality results have outrun what his peripherals justify.
№ 02Ray has issued 36 walks across 67.7 innings for a 4.8 BB/9, putting his command in the bottom tier of the league.
№ 03Wind is blowing out to center at 10 mph at first pitch, giving balls in the air a small push toward the seats.
№ 04The counter is real on power - Vivas has just 1 home run in 122 at-bats this season and is hitting .230 with a 0.63 OPS.
№ 05Oracle Park's 0.78 home run factor for left-handed hitters and Ray's recent run of a 1.00 ERA across his last two starts both work against this swing.
§ 01The analysis
This is a long-shot home run swing built around the matchup more than the hitter. Robbie Ray's 4.12 ERA looks tidy on the surface, but his 5.07 xERA says the contact he has allowed has been better than the results show. The walks back that up - 36 free passes in 67.7 innings is a 4.8 BB/9, which is bottom-tier command and the kind of profile that hands hitters favorable counts. Wind blowing out to center at 10 mph at a day game gives any ball Vivas elevates a little extra carry. The counters are honest. Vivas has 1 home run in 122 at-bats, a .230 average and 0.63 OPS, and 6 hits in 29 at-bats over his last 10 games. Oracle Park plays at a 0.78 home run factor for left-handed hitters, and Ray has tightened up lately with a 1.00 ERA over his most recent two starts versus 12.00 in the older two. The bet is about the price, not the profile.
§ 02The call
The market is implying 8.3% on Vivas going deep. Our model lands at 14.7%, leaving a 6.4% edge. That gap is built on Ray's xERA-ERA split, his 4.8 BB/9, and a 10 mph wind blowing out to center, with the park factor and Ray's recent two-start run already priced into our side as drags. You are not betting on Vivas to suddenly become a power hitter. You are betting that the number is too long for this specific combination of pitcher and conditions. Take the over on 0.5 home runs.
Final resultLOSSJorbit Vivas OVER 0.5 HR · +1100 Graded Jun 10, 2026