MLB · NL Central

Carson Kelly

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Chicago CubsC · SPBats: R · Throws: R
FormSteadyPowerBelow avg

The read

League-average power.

Prop hit rates

How often Carson Kelly has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared
L10L30Season
  • Over 0.5
    60%50%60%
  • Over 1.5
    20%27%26%
  • Over 2.5
    0%3%3%

Home runs

share of games cleared
L10L30Season
  • Over 0.5▲ hot
    20%7%7%

Total bases

share of games cleared
L10L30Season
  • Over 1.5▲ hot
    50%40%36%
  • Over 2.5▲ hot
    30%13%16%
  • Over 3.5▲ hot
    20%10%10%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.283

OBP

.365

SLG

.397

OPS

.762

HR

4

K%

16%

Last 10: 9-for-31 (.290) · 2 HR · 5 K · 6 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 208 PA.

Metric
Percentile
Value
Rank
xwOBA (con)
.342
37
Avg Exit V
88.8 mph
54
Barrel %
6.7%
40
Hard-Hit %
44.0%
41
Chase %
27.9%
61
Whiff %
19.8%
69
K %
16.4%
81
BB %
10.1%
69

Where he hits it

15%LF25%LCF15%CF23%RCF11%RF← Pull

39%

Pull

31%

Center

31%

Oppo

Pull-air 22% of BIP · 92.8 mph · 36° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.980OPS73 PA
vs RHP.647OPS135 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type
AllFour-seamCutterSinkerChangeupSlider
Throws
BothLeftiesRighties
Window
This seasonLast 30 days
Sort by
PA ↑BASLGxwOBAWhiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%
Clear filters

3 pitches · this season · vs left-handed pitchers

PitchPA↑BASLGxwOBAWhiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%Exit veloLaunch
Sinker7.500.667.43722.2%14.3%80.0%20.0%98.5 mph6.0°
Slider18.357.571.37829.0%16.7%36.4%9.1%91.2 mph21.4°
Four-seam28.280.360.3315.7%14.3%47.6%9.5%89.7 mph22.6°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date
Expectedestimators not shown above
xBA
.311
xSLG
.488
Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above
Max EV
108.4
EV90
103.3
Launch angle
12.6°
Sweet-spot%
32.7%
Avg distance
274 ft
EV on barrels
102.5
EV on hard-hit
101.0
Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles
Z-Swing%
67.7%
O-Contact%
55.2%
Z-Contact%
91.5%
Contact%
80.2%
SwStr%
9.3%
CSW%
24.9%
In-zone%
47.7%
1st-pitch swing%
31.3%
2-strike K%
34.0%
Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%
7d xwOBA(con)
.358
7d K%
6.7%
7d Barrel%
10.0%
7d Whiff%
15.4%
14d xwOBA(con)
.391
14d K%
13.3%
14d Barrel%
9.5%
30d xwOBA(con)
.347
30d K%
12.3%
30d Barrel%
4.0%
By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state
0-0 xwOBA(con)
.432
Ahead xwOBA(con)
.297
Behind xwOBA(con)
.353
2-strike xwOBA(con)
.313
Ahead Whiff%
13.3%
2-strike Whiff%
18.7%
By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning
Bases empty
.306
RISP
.428
Loaded
.550
High leverage
.355
Clutch
.248
Innings 1-3
.329
Innings 4-6
.377
Innings 7+
.316

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Attack zones

17%0%33%50%

17%

Heart

50%

Shadow

33%

Chase

0%

Waste

Heart = middle · Shadow = edges (command) · 4.7 ft extension

Where he lives around the zone. Heart (red) is the middle, Shadow (gold) the edges (command), Chase (blue) and Waste (slate) further off.

Full Statcast profile

Arsenal · splits · situationalSeason-to-date
Expected & ratesnot in the panels above
xwOBA allowed
.800
1st-pitch strike%
80.0%
Recent formlast 5 starts
L5 ERA
18.00
L5 FIP
29.10
L5 K/9
0.0
L5 BB/9
0.0
L5 HR/9
18.0
Pitches/start
6.0
Platoon & times-through
vs LHB xwOBA
.000
vs RHB xwOBA
1.000
1st time xwOBA
.800
Inn 7+ ERA
10.40
Rolling formxwOBA allowed / K% / SwStr% / velo
7d xwOBA
.800
7d K%
0.0%
7d velo
53.3
14d xwOBA
.800
14d K%
0.0%
30d xwOBA
.800
30d K%
0.0%
30d velo
53.3

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.