MLB · AL East

Nathan Lukes

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Toronto Blue JaysOFBats: L · Throws: R
FormSteadyPowerPoor

The read

Contact-oriented with limited power, with a low-strikeout, contact-first approach.

At a glance

AVG

.300

OBP

.344

SLG

.400

OPS

.744

HR

2

K%

16%

Last 10: 10-for-36 (.278) · 1 HR · 9 K · 2 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 151 PA.

Metric
Percentile
Value
Rank
xwOBA (con)
.320
23
Avg Exit V
84.9 mph
13
Barrel %
0.9%
2
Hard-Hit %
29.9%
6
Chase %
37.6%
12
Whiff %
16.6%
83
K %
15.9%
82
BB %
4.0%
7

Where he hits it

15%LF21%LCF17%CF15%RCF21%RFPull →

41%

Pull

28%

Center

31%

Oppo

Pull-air 21% of BIP · 82.6 mph · 39° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.393OPS24 PA
vs RHP.808OPS127 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type
AllFour-seamCutterSinkerChangeupCurveballSlider
Throws
BothLeftiesRighties
Window
This seasonLast 30 days
Sort by
PA ↓BASLGxwOBAWhiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%
Clear filters

4 pitches · last 30 days · combined vs both hands

PitchPA↓BASLGxwOBAWhiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%Exit veloLaunch
Sinker23.273.273.2688.1%13.0%20.3%0.0%87.8 mph-0.2°
Slider13.308.538.25230.1%23.1%23.1%0.0%82.7 mph6.0°
Curveball8.5001.000.4607.1%12.5%28.6%0.0%90.6 mph17.7°
Cutter6.167.167.18341.2%33.3%0.0%0.0%82.0 mph10.5°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalthrough Mon Jun 22
Expectedestimators not shown above
xBA
.329
xSLG
.414
Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above
Max EV
107.5
EV90
100.6
Launch angle
10.9°
Sweet-spot%
32.5%
Avg distance
303 ft
EV on barrels
100.8
EV on hard-hit
100.0
Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles
Z-Swing%
64.7%
O-Contact%
82.5%
Z-Contact%
84.0%
Contact%
83.4%
SwStr%
8.5%
CSW%
24.5%
In-zone%
49.8%
1st-pitch swing%
29.6%
2-strike K%
28.6%
Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%
7d xwOBA(con)
.269
7d K%
10.0%
7d Barrel%
0.0%
7d Whiff%
17.9%
14d xwOBA(con)
.265
14d K%
21.4%
14d Barrel%
0.0%
30d xwOBA(con)
.336
30d K%
17.9%
30d Barrel%
1.4%
By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state
0-0 xwOBA(con)
.279
Ahead xwOBA(con)
.292
Behind xwOBA(con)
.360
2-strike xwOBA(con)
.299
Ahead Whiff%
13.4%
2-strike Whiff%
11.2%
By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning
Bases empty
.338
RISP
.302
Loaded
.417
High leverage
.390
Clutch
.331
Innings 1-3
.323
Innings 4-6
.293
Innings 7+
.339

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Nathan Lukes OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox · Jun 18, 2026 · +145

WIN

Nathan Lukes OVER 1.5 Total Bases

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays · Jun 12, 2026 · +195

LOSS

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