№ 01Casey Mize's last 5 starts trend the wrong way: a 1.42 ERA in the earlier outings against a 6.10 ERA in the most recent ones.
№ 02Mize leans on his fastball 70.9% of the time, and the opposing lineup carries a .359 xwOBA against fastballs across 1782 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Ryan Weathers throws 47.6% fastballs into a lineup posting a .354 xwOBA against fastballs across 1883 plate appearances this year.
№ 04Both closers are off the board tonight, with David Bednar unavailable on the home side and Kenley Jansen, carrying a 5.31 ERA, unavailable on the away side.
№ 05Home-plate umpire Alfonso Márquez has worked games averaging 11.2 combined runs this season, and first pitch goes off at 85°F at Yankee Stadium.
§ 01The analysis
The freshest piece of information on the card is Casey Mize's direction. Across his last five starts the line has slid from a 1.42 ERA in the earlier outings to a 6.10 ERA in the most recent ones, and he is bringing a fastball-heavy approach at 70.9% into a lineup running a .359 xwOBA against fastballs over 1782 plate appearances. Ryan Weathers offers his own fastball at 47.6%, and the bats facing him counter with a .354 xwOBA against the pitch over 1883 plate appearances. The away offense has averaged 4.2 runs per game over the last seven days, and both bullpens lose their stoppers tonight with David Bednar and Kenley Jansen unavailable, leaving Jansen's 5.31 ERA as the late-inning backdrop on one side. Alfonso Márquez is behind the plate, his games averaging 11.2 combined runs this season, with first pitch at 85°F. The honest pushback: Mize's 3.16 xERA across 58.0 innings and 2.72 FIP run cleaner than his recent line, Weathers has trimmed a 7.11 ERA down to 1.46 across his last five, and the home offense has gone 2.7 runs per game over the last week without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
§ 02The call
The case for over 8 leans on Mize trending down in real time, two fastball-first starters feeding lineups that punish the pitch, and a late-inning picture without either closer available. Márquez's 11.2-run average and an 85°F first pitch at Yankee Stadium round it out. The risk is real with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton out and a 2.7 runs-per-game home cold stretch, plus Weathers cutting his ERA from 7.11 to 1.46 across his last five and Mize's 3.16 xERA hinting at better stuff underneath. Taking over 8 at -102.
Final resultWINOver 8 -102 · -102 Graded Jun 30, 2026