№ 01Collins is hitting .375 off right-handed sinkers over 27 plate appearances this year, whiffing on just 5% of them, a real pitch-type edge against Mize.
№ 02He's also batted .292 across 28 plate appearances against right-handed sliders, giving him two productive answers to Mize's primary offerings.
№ 03Against righties overall, Collins is hitting .268 with a .79 OPS across 235 plate appearances, a workable baseline for a single-hit prop.
№ 04Recent form backs it up: 9 hits in 33 at-bats over his last 10 games, with Comerica Park sitting at a neutral 1.02 run environment.
№ 05The pushback is Casey Mize, running a 3.14 xERA over 80.7 innings and a 2.58 FIP, with a 2.53 FIP across his last 5 starts.
§ 01The analysis
The case for Isaac Collins clearing a hit starts with how he handles the pitches he's most likely to see. Against right-handed sinkers this year, he's hitting .375 through 27 plate appearances while whiffing on only 5% of them, which is the kind of contact profile you want backing a -135 over. He pairs that with a .292 mark on right-handed sliders across 28 plate appearances, so the two-pitch mix that most righties lean on hasn't been giving him trouble. Zoom out and the baseline holds up: .268 against right-handed pitching this season with a .79 OPS across 235 plate appearances.246 overall on 293 at-bats with a .72 OPS, and 9 hits in his last 33 at-bats over the past 10 games. Comerica Park is playing at a 1.02 run environment, roughly neutral, with first pitch in daylight. The obvious risk is the arm on the other side. Casey Mize is carrying a 3.14 xERA across 80.7 innings, a 2.58 FIP on the season, and a 2.53 FIP over his last 5 starts covering 28.3 innings, while striking out 25.7% of hitters.
§ 02The call
Priced at -135, the read leans on Collins matching up well with Mize's shapes rather than beating him broadly. The .375 mark on right-handed sinkers with a 5% whiff rate and the .292 clip against right-handed sliders are specific edges, and the .268 average versus righties and 9-for-33 recent stretch keep the floor honest at a neutral 1.02 park. The counter is real: Mize's 2.58 FIP and 2.53 FIP over his last 5 starts point to a pitcher limiting damage. The pitch-type profile is what tips this over.
Final resultLOSSIsaac Collins OVER 0.5 Hits · -135 Graded Jul 26, 2026