№ 01Cam Schlittler's 1.71 ERA hides a 2.76 xERA, a 1.05-run gap that says his run prevention is outpacing the contact he has actually allowed.
№ 02Schlittler's swinging-strike and strikeout rates have both slipped below his own season baseline, a quiet signal under the shiny top line.
№ 03Aroldis Chapman anchors the home pen at 2.08 ERA across 21.7 innings with 14 saves, and the group has thrown only 97 pitches in three days.
№ 04The opposing lineup is missing Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the 10-day IL and has averaged 2.7 runs per game over the last seven days.
№ 05Closer David Bednar's availability is in doubt after back-to-back appearances, thinning out late-inning options for the visitors at Fenway.
§ 01The analysis
The headline on Cam Schlittler reads 1.71 ERA, but the under-the-hood number is a 2.76 xERA, a 1.05-run gap that flags his run prevention as borrowed from contact luck rather than earned. His swinging-strike and strikeout rates have also dipped below his own season baseline, another small leak under the surface. The opposing lineup is shorthanded with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both on the 10-day IL, and over the last seven days that group has averaged just 2.7 runs per game. Boston's bullpen ranks 3 of 30 in three-day pitch volume at 97 pitches, one of the freshest groups in the league, with Aroldis Chapman waiting at 2.08 ERA over 21.7 innings and 14 saves on the year. David Bednar's late-inning availability is also a question after back-to-back outings. The risk is honest. Schlittler still carries a 2.06 FIP, a 28.7% strikeout rate, and a 0.69 ERA across his most recent five starts, while Connelly Early sits at a 4.40 xERA and a 5.91 ERA across his most recent outings.
§ 02The call
At +131, the bet is paying for the regression case on a starter whose 1.71 ERA does not square with his 2.76 xERA or his fading whiff profile, behind a visiting lineup down Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and averaging 2.7 runs over the past week. The home pen, ranked 3 of 30 in three-day volume with Chapman at 2.08 ERA and 14 saves, offers a clean bridge to the late innings. Connelly Early's recent 5.91 ERA stretch and 4.40 xERA are the counter you have to respect.
Final resultWINBoston Red Sox ML +131 · +131 Graded Jun 26, 2026