№ 01The recent form gap is wide: our offense carries a 7-day form score of 24 while averaging 6.0 runs per game, against their -88 form score and 2.5 runs per game.
№ 02George Kirby throws 54.6% fastballs, and our lineup posts a .353 xwOBA against fastballs across 1724 plate appearances this season.
№ 03Our offense ranks 4 of 30 in OPS at 0.74 and runs a 40 form score against right-handed pitching across 758 plate appearances.
№ 04The opposing side is missing Brendan Donovan, Eduardo Ponce, and Will Wilson on the injured list, thinning the bats behind Kirby.
№ 05If this game stays close late, our bullpen has thrown just 132 pitches over the last three days with Gregory Soto and his 11 saves ready for the ninth.
§ 01The analysis
The home price assumes Kirby walks in and shuts this lineup down, but the matchup data pushes back. Kirby throws 54.6% fastballs and our lineup runs a .353 xwOBA against fastballs over 1724 plate appearances. The bats are in form too, a 24 form score with 6.0 runs per game over the last week, a 4 of 30 OPS rank at 0.74, and a 40 form score versus right-handers across 758 plate appearances. The visitors arrive going the other direction with a -88 form score and 2.5 runs per game over the same window, and they are without Donovan, Ponce, and Wilson. On the mound, Mitch Keller's 4.92 ERA looks worse than his underlying work, with a 3.76 FIP and a 5.00 xERA. The counter is real: Kirby's 3.34 FIP and 3.10 FIP across his most recent 5 starts are sharp, the opposing staff ranks 5 of 30 in ERA at 3.62, and the recent head-to-head sits 0-4 against us. At plus money on PNC Park dirt, the offensive matchup and form differential are doing the work.
§ 02The call
The home side at +116 is the right number. The path is straightforward: a fastball-heavy starter walking into a lineup that handles fastballs at a .353 xwOBA clip, an opposing offense averaging 2.5 runs per game in its current form window, and three regulars off the visiting roster. Keller's 3.76 FIP and 5.00 xERA say he is pitching better than the ERA suggests, and the late-game group behind him is fresh with Soto available. Kirby and the 5 of 30 staff ERA are why this is plus money, but the matchup is worth the price.
Final resultLOSSPittsburgh Pirates ML +116 · +116 Graded Jun 24, 2026