MLB · AL East

Nathan Lukes

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Toronto Blue JaysOFBats: L · Throws: R

FormSteadyPowerPoor

The read

Contact-oriented with limited power, with a low-strikeout, contact-first approach.

Prop hit rates

How often Nathan Lukes has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
70%83%63%
Over 1.5▼ cold
10%23%22%
Over 2.5
10%7%9%

Home runs

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5▲ hot
20%10%7%

Total bases

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 1.5
40%43%35%
Over 2.5▲ hot
30%20%17%
Over 3.5▲ hot
30%13%11%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.297↓

OBP

.340

SLG

.414

OPS

.753

16%

Last 10: 9-for-34 (.265) · 2 HR · 6 K · 1 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 156 PA.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

xwOBA (con)

.321

Avg Exit V

85.2 mph

Barrel %

0.8%

Hard-Hit %

31.4%

Chase %

36.6%

Whiff %

16.5%

K %

16.0%

BB %

3.9%

Where he hits it

41%

Pull

28%

Center

31%

Oppo

Pull-air 29% of BIP · 84.0 mph · 38° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.376OPS25 PA

vs RHP.822OPS131 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type

All Four-seam Cutter Sinker Changeup Curveball Slider

Throws

Both Lefties Righties

Window

This season Last 30 days

Sort by

PA ↑BA SLG xwOBA Whiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%

Clear filters

5 pitches · last 30 days · combined vs both hands

Pitch	PA↑	BA	SLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	Hard-hit%	Barrel%	Exit velo	Launch
Cutter	6	.167	.167	.183	41.2%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	82.0 mph	10.5°
Curveball	8	.500	1.000	.460	7.1%	12.5%	28.6%	0.0%	90.6 mph	17.7°
Changeup	13	.462	.615	.250	20.8%	15.4%	9.1%	9.1%	83.8 mph	10.4°
Sinker	24	.255	.255	.227	10.4%	16.7%	19.2%	0.0%	88.1 mph	2.4°
Four-seam	26	.238	.286	.339	20.7%	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	78.4 mph	11.6°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date

Expectedestimators not shown above

xBA

.326

xSLG

.420

Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above

Max EV

107.5

EV90

100.8

Launch angle

11.5°

Sweet-spot%

33.1%

Avg distance

306 ft

EV on barrels

100.8

EV on hard-hit

99.9

Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles

Z-Swing%

64.7%

O-Contact%

82.8%

Z-Contact%

84.0%

Contact%

83.5%

SwStr%

8.3%

CSW%

24.3%

In-zone%

49.4%

1st-pitch swing%

29.3%

2-strike K%

29.1%

Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%

7d xwOBA(con)

.271

7d K%

15.0%

7d Barrel%

0.0%

7d Whiff%

17.1%

14d xwOBA(con)

.271

14d K%

20.5%

14d Barrel%

0.0%

30d xwOBA(con)

.318

30d K%

17.9%

30d Barrel%

1.4%

By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state

0-0 xwOBA(con)

.298

Ahead xwOBA(con)

.293

Behind xwOBA(con)

.360

2-strike xwOBA(con)

.305

Ahead Whiff%

12.5%

2-strike Whiff%

11.0%

By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning

Bases empty

.345

RISP

.302

Loaded

.417

High leverage

.390

Clutch

.346

Innings 1-3

.322

Innings 4-6

.288

Innings 7+

.346

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Nathan Lukes OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox · Jun 18, 2026 · +145

WIN

Nathan Lukes OVER 1.5 Total Bases

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays · Jun 12, 2026 · +195

LOSS

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