MLB · NL Central

Carson Kelly

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Chicago CubsC · SPBats: R · Throws: R

FormSteadyPowerBelow avg

The read

League-average power, with a low-strikeout, contact-first approach.

Prop hit rates

How often Carson Kelly has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
60%57%58%
Over 1.5
20%17%22%
Over 2.5
10%3%4%

Home runs

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
10%13%8%

Total bases

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 1.5
30%33%33%
Over 2.5
20%17%15%
Over 3.5
10%13%11%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.266

OBP

.353

SLG

.382

OPS

.735

17%

Last 10: 10-for-39 (.256) · 1 HR · 7 K · 4 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 303 PA.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

xwOBA (con)

.333

Avg Exit V

87.7 mph

Barrel %

6.0%

Hard-Hit %

43.3%

Chase %

25.4%

Whiff %

18.2%

K %

16.5%

BB %

10.9%

Where he hits it

37%

Pull

33%

Center

30%

Oppo

Pull-air 25% of BIP · 93.9 mph · 37° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.985OPS108 PA

vs RHP.600OPS195 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type

All Four-seam Cutter Sinker Changeup Curveball Slider

Throws

Both Lefties Righties

Window

This season Last 30 days

Sort by

PA ↑BA SLG xwOBA Whiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%

Clear filters

5 pitches · this season · vs right-handed pitchers

Pitch	PA↑	BA	SLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	Hard-hit%	Barrel%	Exit velo	Launch
Curveball	7	.000	.000	.141	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	70.1 mph	-9.0°
Cutter	15	.385	.615	.466	16.0%	13.3%	58.3%	8.3%	93.2 mph	7.5°
Four-seam	46	.308	.333	.352	6.7%	8.7%	44.7%	7.9%	90.5 mph	22.2°
Sinker	57	.283	.302	.301	5.1%	12.3%	33.3%	0.0%	83.8 mph	-1.3°
Slider	63	.138	.224	.226	30.8%	27.0%	29.5%	4.5%	87.8 mph	17.1°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date

Expectedestimators not shown above

xBA

.301

xSLG

.478

Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above

Max EV

108.4

EV90

102.6

Launch angle

12.1°

Sweet-spot%

31.8%

Avg distance

282 ft

EV on barrels

103.0

EV on hard-hit

100.7

Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles

Z-Swing%

65.5%

O-Contact%

58.6%

Z-Contact%

91.5%

Contact%

81.8%

SwStr%

8.1%

CSW%

25.4%

In-zone%

48.1%

1st-pitch swing%

28.1%

2-strike K%

34.5%

Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%

7d xwOBA(con)

.448

7d K%

11.1%

7d Barrel%

6.7%

7d Whiff%

8.6%

14d xwOBA(con)

.325

14d K%

17.1%

14d Barrel%

3.7%

30d xwOBA(con)

.347

30d K%

18.1%

30d Barrel%

5.8%

By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state

0-0 xwOBA(con)

.430

Ahead xwOBA(con)

.320

Behind xwOBA(con)

.316

2-strike xwOBA(con)

.290

Ahead Whiff%

16.0%

2-strike Whiff%

16.7%

By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning

Bases empty

.306

RISP

.370

Loaded

.583

High leverage

.357

Clutch

.250

Innings 1-3

.324

Innings 4-6

.369

Innings 7+

.305

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Attack zones

17%

Heart

50%

Shadow

33%

Chase

Waste

Heart = middle · Shadow = edges (command) · 4.7 ft extension

Where he lives around the zone. Heart (red) is the middle, Shadow (gold) the edges (command), Chase (blue) and Waste (slate) further off.

Full Statcast profile

Arsenal · splits · situationalSeason-to-date

Expected & ratesnot in the panels above

xwOBA allowed

.800

1st-pitch strike%

80.0%

Recent formlast 5 starts

L5 ERA

18.00

L5 FIP

29.10

L5 K/9

0.0

L5 BB/9

0.0

L5 HR/9

18.0

Pitches/start

6.0

Platoon & times-through

vs LHB xwOBA

.000

vs RHB xwOBA

1.000

1st time xwOBA

.800

Inn 7+ ERA

10.40

Rolling formxwOBA allowed / K% / SwStr% / velo

7d xwOBA

.800

7d K%

0.0%

7d velo

53.3

14d xwOBA

.800

14d K%

0.0%

30d xwOBA

.800

30d K%

0.0%

30d velo

53.3

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Carson Kelly OVER 0.5 Hits

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · Jul 30, 2026 · -144

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Carson Kelly OVER 0.5 Total Bases

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