MLB · AL East

Ceddanne Rafaela

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Boston Red SoxOFBats: R · Throws: R

FormHotPowerBelow avg

The read

Contact-oriented with limited power. Heating up over the last ten.

Prop hit rates

How often Ceddanne Rafaela has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5▲ hot
90%83%74%
Over 1.5▲ hot
50%40%29%
Over 2.5
10%3%7%

Home runs

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5▲ hot
40%23%13%

Total bases

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 1.5▲ hot
70%63%49%
Over 2.5▲ hot
60%37%24%
Over 3.5▲ hot
40%23%17%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.286↑

OBP

.327

SLG

.473

OPS

.800

20%

Last 10: 15-for-41 (.366) · 5 HR · 11 K · 1 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 449 PA.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

xwOBA (con)

.336

Avg Exit V

86.3 mph

Barrel %

5.7%

Hard-Hit %

38.3%

Chase %

42.2%

Whiff %

22.4%

K %

20.3%

BB %

4.2%

Where he hits it

40%

Pull

23%

Center

38%

Oppo

Pull-air 26% of BIP · 95.5 mph · 33° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.849OPS124 PA

vs RHP.782OPS325 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type

All Four-seam Cutter Sinker Changeup Curveball Slider

Throws

Both Lefties Righties

Window

This season Last 30 days

Sort by

PA ↑BA SLG xwOBA Whiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%

Clear filters

4 pitches · this season · combined vs both hands

Pitch	PA↑	BA	SLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	Hard-hit%	Barrel%	Exit velo	Launch
Curveball	34	.221	.409	.214	29.5%	26.5%	39.2%	0.0%	88.9 mph	3.5°
Cutter	41	.323	.457	.298	22.0%	9.8%	35.9%	3.1%	86.6 mph	15.0°
Changeup	61	.287	.627	.268	28.3%	23.0%	31.9%	14.0%	86.1 mph	15.2°
Sinker	81	.302	.395	.354	10.9%	13.6%	35.6%	4.2%	84.1 mph	3.4°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date

Expectedestimators not shown above

xBA

.317

xSLG

.466

Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above

Max EV

109.9

EV90

101.4

Launch angle

11.9°

Sweet-spot%

38.0%

Avg distance

322 ft

EV on barrels

101.4

EV on hard-hit

100.2

Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles

Z-Swing%

70.4%

O-Contact%

65.0%

Z-Contact%

85.9%

Contact%

77.6%

SwStr%

12.4%

CSW%

27.3%

In-zone%

47.9%

1st-pitch swing%

40.3%

2-strike K%

35.5%

Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%

7d xwOBA(con)

.531

7d K%

19.2%

7d Barrel%

21.1%

7d Whiff%

15.9%

14d xwOBA(con)

.458

14d K%

26.9%

14d Barrel%

13.9%

30d xwOBA(con)

.365

30d K%

20.9%

30d Barrel%

8.3%

By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state

0-0 xwOBA(con)

.345

Ahead xwOBA(con)

.324

Behind xwOBA(con)

.335

2-strike xwOBA(con)

.333

Ahead Whiff%

20.7%

2-strike Whiff%

17.2%

By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning

Bases empty

.339

RISP

.418

Loaded

.522

High leverage

.370

Clutch

.380

Innings 1-3

.317

Innings 4-6

.347

Innings 7+

.345

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Ceddanne Rafaela OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Aug 2, 2026 · +163

WIN

Browse the full archive →

Learn the betting side

How to bet on baseball: the complete MLB guide →Baseball's bets, from the run line to props, and the three things that move every number: pitching, the park, and the weather.How to read baseball stats for betting: OBP to xwOBA →A bettor's guide to baseball stats: what to read past the batting average and ERA, which numbers predict the future, and how Statcast measures it.MLB run line explained: baseball's 1.5-run spread →The run line is baseball's spread, fixed at 1.Betting MLB totals: pitchers, parks, and weather →An MLB over/under is set by three things: the starting pitchers, the ballpark, and the weather.