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MLB · AL East

Ceddanne Rafaela

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Boston Red SoxOFBats: R · Throws: R
FormHotPowerBelow avg

The read

Contact-oriented with limited power. Heating up over the last ten.

Prop hit rates

How often Ceddanne Rafaela has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared
L10L30Season
  • Over 0.5▲ hot
    90%87%75%
  • Over 1.5▲ hot
    50%43%30%
  • Over 2.5
    10%3%7%

Home runs

share of games cleared
L10L30Season
  • Over 0.5▲ hot
    40%23%13%

Total bases

share of games cleared
L10L30Season
  • Over 1.5▲ hot
    70%67%49%
  • Over 2.5▲ hot
    60%37%24%
  • Over 3.5▲ hot
    40%23%17%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.288↑

OBP

.328

SLG

.476

OPS

.804

HR

15

K%

20%

Last 10: 15-for-42 (.357) · 5 HR · 11 K · 0 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 445 PA.

Metric
Percentile
Value
Rank
xwOBA (con)
.337
36
Avg Exit V
86.3 mph
28
Barrel %
5.8%
34
Hard-Hit %
38.5%
23
Chase %
42.3%
4
Whiff %
22.5%
51
K %
20.2%
62
BB %
4.0%
9

Where he hits it

21%LF23%LCF11%CF20%RCF16%RF← Pull

39%

Pull

23%

Center

38%

Oppo

Pull-air 26% of BIP · 96.0 mph · 33° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.849OPS124 PA
vs RHP.787OPS321 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type
AllFour-seamCutterSinkerChangeupCurveballSlider
Throws
BothLeftiesRighties
Window
This seasonLast 30 days
Sort by
PA ↑BASLGxwOBAWhiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%
Clear filters

4 pitches · this season · combined vs both hands

PitchPA↑BASLGxwOBAWhiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%Exit veloLaunch
Curveball33.222.411.19929.6%27.3%39.2%0.0%88.9 mph3.5°
Cutter41.323.457.29822.4%9.8%35.9%3.1%86.6 mph15.0°
Changeup61.287.627.26828.5%23.0%31.9%14.0%86.1 mph15.2°
Slider93.321.637.29225.8%18.3%30.7%8.5%85.4 mph16.4°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date
Expectedestimators not shown above
xBA
.318
xSLG
.468
Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above
Max EV
109.9
EV90
101.4
Launch angle
11.9°
Sweet-spot%
37.9%
Avg distance
317 ft
EV on barrels
101.4
EV on hard-hit
100.2
Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles
Z-Swing%
70.0%
O-Contact%
64.9%
Z-Contact%
85.7%
Contact%
77.5%
SwStr%
12.5%
CSW%
27.5%
In-zone%
47.8%
1st-pitch swing%
40.2%
2-strike K%
35.6%
Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%
7d xwOBA(con)
.576
7d K%
25.9%
7d Barrel%
21.1%
7d Whiff%
20.7%
14d xwOBA(con)
.416
14d K%
23.2%
14d Barrel%
11.9%
30d xwOBA(con)
.371
30d K%
20.8%
30d Barrel%
8.5%
By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state
0-0 xwOBA(con)
.351
Ahead xwOBA(con)
.324
Behind xwOBA(con)
.336
2-strike xwOBA(con)
.334
Ahead Whiff%
21.1%
2-strike Whiff%
17.3%
By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning
Bases empty
.341
RISP
.418
Loaded
.522
High leverage
.371
Clutch
.380
Innings 1-3
.320
Innings 4-6
.347
Innings 7+
.347

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Ceddanne Rafaela OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Aug 2, 2026 · +163

WIN

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Learn the betting side

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