MLB · NL Central

Nathan Church

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

St. Louis CardinalsOFBats: L · Throws: L

FormSteadyPowerBelow avg

The read

League-average power. Cooling off over the last ten.

Prop hit rates

How often Nathan Church has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
40%37%48%
Over 1.5
10%10%17%
Over 2.5
0%0%3%

Home runs

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
0%10%8%

Total bases

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 1.5▼ cold
10%17%27%
Over 2.5▼ cold
0%10%14%
Over 3.5▼ cold
0%10%10%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.225↓

OBP

.267

SLG

.350

OPS

.617

21%

Last 10: 5-for-28 (.179) · 0 HR · 6 K · 1 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 300 PA.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

xwOBA (con)

.328

Avg Exit V

84.6 mph

Barrel %

7.3%

Hard-Hit %

36.4%

Chase %

45.6%

Whiff %

21.6%

K %

20.7%

BB %

4.7%

Where he hits it

42%

Pull

32%

Center

26%

Oppo

Pull-air 25% of BIP · 96.1 mph · 29° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.617OPS66 PA

vs RHP.617OPS234 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type

All Four-seam Cutter Sinker Changeup Curveball Slider

Throws

Both Lefties Righties

Window

This season Last 30 days

Sort by

PA ↑BA SLG xwOBA Whiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%

Clear filters

3 pitches · this season · combined vs both hands

Pitch	PA↑	BA	SLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	Hard-hit%	Barrel%	Exit velo	Launch
Curveball	25	.293	.573	.234	23.0%	20.0%	28.9%	0.0%	84.8 mph	14.7°
Sinker	33	.233	.337	.372	6.8%	0.0%	36.4%	13.4%	86.0 mph	-11.1°
Slider	72	.177	.296	.224	24.0%	25.0%	25.4%	9.5%	81.1 mph	19.7°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date

Expectedestimators not shown above

xBA

.304

xSLG

.469

Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above

Max EV

110.1

EV90

102.2

Launch angle

10.8°

Sweet-spot%

34.5%

Avg distance

326 ft

EV on barrels

103.2

EV on hard-hit

101.3

Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles

Z-Swing%

72.8%

O-Contact%

70.4%

Z-Contact%

84.3%

Contact%

78.4%

SwStr%

12.6%

CSW%

25.0%

In-zone%

46.5%

1st-pitch swing%

36.3%

2-strike K%

36.7%

Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%

7d xwOBA(con)

.366

7d K%

22.2%

7d Barrel%

7.7%

7d Whiff%

29.8%

14d xwOBA(con)

.332

14d K%

18.9%

14d Barrel%

3.6%

30d xwOBA(con)

.290

30d K%

20.3%

30d Barrel%

3.4%

By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state

0-0 xwOBA(con)

.298

Ahead xwOBA(con)

.357

Behind xwOBA(con)

.280

2-strike xwOBA(con)

.321

Ahead Whiff%

21.3%

2-strike Whiff%

17.8%

By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning

Bases empty

.248

RISP

.272

Loaded

.000

High leverage

.256

Clutch

.333

Innings 1-3

.360

Innings 4-6

.300

Innings 7+

.335

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Nathan Church OVER 0.5 Hits

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · Aug 2, 2026 · -142

Nathan Church OVER 1.5 Total Bases

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · Jul 31, 2026 · +220

WIN

Nathan Church OVER 0.5 Hits

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals · Jul 9, 2026 · -118

LOSS

Nathan Church OVER 0.5 Hits

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals · Jul 6, 2026 · -143

WIN

Nathan Church OVER 0.5 Hits

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs · Jul 5, 2026 · -146

WIN

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