MLB · AL East

Nathan Lukes

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Toronto Blue JaysOFBats: L · Throws: R
FormColdPowerPoor

The read

Contact-oriented with limited power, with a low-strikeout, contact-first approach. Cooling off over the last ten.

Prop hit rates

How often Nathan Lukes has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared
L10L30Season
  • Over 0.5▲ hot
    70%80%62%
  • Over 1.5▼ cold
    10%23%21%
  • Over 2.5
    10%7%9%

Home runs

share of games cleared
L10L30Season
  • Over 0.5▲ hot
    20%10%6%

Total bases

share of games cleared
L10L30Season
  • Over 1.5
    40%43%34%
  • Over 2.5▲ hot
    30%20%17%
  • Over 3.5▲ hot
    30%13%11%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.293↓

OBP

.340

SLG

.407

OPS

.746

HR

3

K%

16%

Last 10: 7-for-30 (.233) · 2 HR · 4 K · 1 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 162 PA.

Metric
Percentile
Value
Rank
xwOBA (con)
.320
23
Avg Exit V
85.0 mph
15
Barrel %
0.8%
2
Hard-Hit %
30.4%
7
Chase %
37.0%
14
Whiff %
16.4%
85
K %
16.1%
82
BB %
4.3%
9

Where he hits it

14%LF21%LCF17%CF14%RCF22%RFPull →

41%

Pull

28%

Center

31%

Oppo

Pull-air 29% of BIP · 84.0 mph · 38° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.375OPS28 PA
vs RHP.819OPS134 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type
AllFour-seamCutterSinkerChangeupCurveballSlider
Throws
BothLeftiesRighties
Window
This seasonLast 30 days
Sort by
PA ↓BASLGxwOBAWhiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%
Clear filters

4 pitches · this season · combined vs both hands

PitchPA↓BASLGxwOBAWhiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%Exit veloLaunch
Four-seam51.325.411.30216.0%19.6%34.8%0.0%84.8 mph18.0°
Changeup22.364.500.25614.3%9.1%20.8%4.2%84.6 mph8.0°
Slider22.300.550.29923.2%13.6%20.0%0.0%81.9 mph10.1°
Cutter11.200.200.29728.6%27.3%28.6%0.0%82.3 mph19.3°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date
Expectedestimators not shown above
xBA
.326
xSLG
.418
Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above
Max EV
107.5
EV90
100.7
Launch angle
11.7°
Sweet-spot%
32.8%
Avg distance
302 ft
EV on barrels
100.8
EV on hard-hit
99.9
Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles
Z-Swing%
63.7%
O-Contact%
82.8%
Z-Contact%
84.2%
Contact%
83.6%
SwStr%
8.2%
CSW%
24.6%
In-zone%
49.0%
1st-pitch swing%
28.8%
2-strike K%
29.5%
Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%
7d xwOBA(con)
.262
7d K%
21.1%
7d Barrel%
0.0%
7d Whiff%
18.2%
14d xwOBA(con)
.266
14d K%
17.1%
14d Barrel%
0.0%
30d xwOBA(con)
.307
30d K%
16.5%
30d Barrel%
0.0%
By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state
0-0 xwOBA(con)
.275
Ahead xwOBA(con)
.293
Behind xwOBA(con)
.354
2-strike xwOBA(con)
.305
Ahead Whiff%
12.4%
2-strike Whiff%
10.8%
By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning
Bases empty
.331
RISP
.339
Loaded
.417
High leverage
.386
Clutch
.346
Innings 1-3
.313
Innings 4-6
.298
Innings 7+
.346

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Nathan Lukes OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox · Jun 18, 2026 · +145

WIN

Nathan Lukes OVER 1.5 Total Bases

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays · Jun 12, 2026 · +195

LOSS

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