MLB · AL East

Nathan Lukes

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Toronto Blue JaysOFBats: L · Throws: R

FormSteadyPowerPoor

The read

Contact-oriented with limited power, with a low-strikeout, contact-first approach.

Prop hit rates

How often Nathan Lukes has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
70%83%62%
Over 1.5▼ cold
10%27%22%
Over 2.5
10%10%9%

Home runs

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
10%7%4%

Total bases

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 1.5
30%43%33%
Over 2.5
20%20%16%
Over 3.5▲ hot
20%13%9%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.300

OBP

.344

SLG

.400

OPS

.744

16%

Last 10: 10-for-36 (.278) · 1 HR · 9 K · 2 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 151 PA.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

xwOBA (con)

.320

Avg Exit V

84.9 mph

Barrel %

0.9%

Hard-Hit %

29.9%

Chase %

37.6%

Whiff %

16.6%

K %

15.9%

BB %

4.0%

Where he hits it

41%

Pull

28%

Center

31%

Oppo

Pull-air 21% of BIP · 82.6 mph · 39° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.393OPS24 PA

vs RHP.808OPS127 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type

All Four-seam Cutter Sinker Changeup Curveball Slider

Throws

Both Lefties Righties

Window

This season Last 30 days

Sort by

PA ↓BA SLG xwOBA Whiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%

Clear filters

6 pitches · this season · combined vs both hands

Pitch	PA↓	BA	SLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	Hard-hit%	Barrel%	Exit velo	Launch
Four-seam	47	.332	.356	.300	16.3%	19.2%	30.6%	0.0%	83.8 mph	17.2°
Sinker	32	.228	.228	.252	8.3%	15.6%	22.7%	0.0%	88.3 mph	0.5°
Changeup	21	.381	.524	.264	14.6%	9.5%	21.7%	4.3%	84.9 mph	6.8°
Slider	20	.325	.600	.291	22.2%	15.0%	22.0%	0.0%	82.2 mph	11.4°
Curveball	17	.353	.706	.407	10.7%	11.8%	46.7%	0.0%	90.4 mph	15.9°
Cutter	11	.200	.200	.297	28.6%	27.3%	28.6%	0.0%	82.3 mph	19.3°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date

Expectedestimators not shown above

xBA

.329

xSLG

.414

Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above

Max EV

107.5

EV90

100.6

Launch angle

10.9°

Sweet-spot%

32.5%

Avg distance

303 ft

EV on barrels

100.8

EV on hard-hit

100.0

Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles

Z-Swing%

64.7%

O-Contact%

82.5%

Z-Contact%

84.0%

Contact%

83.4%

SwStr%

8.5%

CSW%

24.5%

In-zone%

49.8%

1st-pitch swing%

29.6%

2-strike K%

28.6%

Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%

7d xwOBA(con)

.269

7d K%

10.0%

7d Barrel%

0.0%

7d Whiff%

17.9%

14d xwOBA(con)

.265

14d K%

21.4%

14d Barrel%

0.0%

30d xwOBA(con)

.336

30d K%

17.9%

30d Barrel%

1.4%

By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state

0-0 xwOBA(con)

.279

Ahead xwOBA(con)

.292

Behind xwOBA(con)

.360

2-strike xwOBA(con)

.299

Ahead Whiff%

13.4%

2-strike Whiff%

11.2%

By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning

Bases empty

.338

RISP

.302

Loaded

.417

High leverage

.390

Clutch

.331

Innings 1-3

.323

Innings 4-6

.293

Innings 7+

.339

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Nathan Lukes OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox · Jun 18, 2026 · +145

WIN

Nathan Lukes OVER 1.5 Total Bases

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays · Jun 12, 2026 · +195

LOSS

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