MLB · AL Central

Seth Lugo

Betting stats, pitch arsenal, opponent splits & prop matchups

Kansas City RoyalsSPBats: R · Throws: R

FormHotStuffBelow avg

The read

A pitch-to-contact profile.

Strikeout prop

How often Seth Lugo has cleared each strikeout line over his last 5 and 10 starts and the season.

Strikeouts

share of starts cleared

L5L10Season

Over 4.5
40%30%46%
Over 5.5▼ cold
20%20%32%
Over 6.5▼ cold
0%10%18%
Over 7.5
0%0%0%

Research any pitcher with the prop-research tool.

On the mound

This season

ERA

4.18

WHIP

1.39

FIP

4.15

xERA

5.38

4-6 · 23 GS · 127.0 IP · 97 K · 44 BB · 15 HR

MLB avg · 4.20 ERA · 1.30 WHIP · 4.15 FIP

Last 5 starts

ERA

2.77

K/9

5.5

FIP

3.64

26.0 IP · 8 ER · 16 K · 11 BB

@BAL 4IP 2ER 6K
vSD 6IP 1ER 3K
vSF 7IP 3ER 5K
@MIN 6IP 1ER 2K
@COL 3IP 1ER 0K

Opponent splits

Stat	vs Lefties	vs Righties
Opp BA	.255	.231
K%	19%	17%
HR allowed	7	8
Sample	337 BF	186 BF

Quality of stuff

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB pitchers (20+ IP) this season. The dot is this player; further right is better. Over 127.0 IP.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

ERA

4.18

FIP

4.15

xERA

5.38

WHIP

1.39

K %

18.4%

SwStr %

7.3%

Chase %

24.4%

Barrel %

9.1%

Attack zones

26%

Heart

41%

Shadow

23%

Chase

10%

Waste

Heart = middle · Shadow = edges (command) · 5.8 ft extension

Where he lives around the zone. Heart (red) is the middle, Shadow (gold) the edges (command), Chase (blue) and Waste (slate) further off.

Full Statcast profile

Arsenal · splits · situationalSeason-to-date

Pitch arsenalusage · velo · spin · break · whiff% · xwOBA

4-Seam

16%

Sinker

20%

Cutter

16%

Slider

Curve

15%

Change

Other

15%

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Spin	Break	Zone%	SwStr%	xwOBA
Sinker	20.3%	91.4	2347	2.0	59.4%	4.3%	.425
Cutter	16.0%	89.8	2352	1.8	61.5%	12.1%	.407
4-Seam	15.6%	91.6	2277	1.4	53.8%	4.9%	.456
Curve	15.1%	77.1	3205	5.0	45.0%	7.7%	.343
Slider	9.1%	84.2	2662	3.1	50.8%	11.2%	.493
Change	8.7%	84.8	1729	2.9	42.1%	7.0%	.333

Based on 1,968 pitches this season.

Expected & ratesnot in the panels above

xwOBA allowed

.353

1st-pitch strike%

64.7%

Putaway%

35.8%

Recent formlast 5 starts

L5 ERA

6.20

L5 FIP

4.28

L5 K/9

7.3

L5 BB/9

3.6

L5 HR/9

1.1

Pitches/start

89.5

Platoon & times-through

vs LHB xwOBA

.355

vs RHB xwOBA

.348

1st time xwOBA

.354

2nd time xwOBA

.339

3rd time xwOBA

.371

Inn 1-3 ERA

4.45

Inn 4-6 ERA

4.51

Inn 7+ ERA

6.66

Rolling formxwOBA allowed / K% / SwStr% / velo

7d xwOBA

.309

7d K%

14.0%

7d velo

84.8

14d xwOBA

.307

14d K%

13.7%

30d xwOBA

.376

30d K%

19.0%

30d velo

85.5

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Seth Lugo OVER 4.5 Strikeouts

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins · Jun 4, 2026 · -110

LOSS

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