MLB · NL East

Francisco Alvarez

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

New York MetsCBats: R · Throws: R

FormSteadyPowerElite

The read

Elite power and contact quality, with plenty of swing-and-miss.

Prop hit rates

How often Francisco Alvarez has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
60%63%64%
Over 1.5▼ cold
0%20%16%
Over 2.5
0%0%1%

Home runs

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
10%20%13%

Total bases

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 1.5▼ cold
20%40%32%
Over 2.5
10%20%15%
Over 3.5
10%20%13%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.251

OBP

.332

SLG

.432

OPS

.764

26%

Last 10: 8-for-32 (.250) · 3 HR · 12 K · 10 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 274 PA.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

xwOBA (con)

.431

Avg Exit V

90.2 mph

Barrel %

16.6%

Hard-Hit %

54.4%

Chase %

32.1%

Whiff %

29.8%

K %

26.3%

BB %

9.8%

Where he hits it

50%

Pull

30%

Center

20%

Oppo

Pull-air 32% of BIP · 94.8 mph · 34° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.663OPS71 PA

vs RHP.799OPS203 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type

All Four-seam Cutter Sinker Changeup Curveball Slider

Throws

Both Lefties Righties

Window

This season Last 30 days

Sort by

PA ↑BA SLG xwOBA Whiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%

Clear filters

6 pitches · this season · combined vs both hands

Pitch	PA↑	BA	SLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	Hard-hit%	Barrel%	Exit velo	Launch
Cutter	10	.111	.111	.275	29.4%	30.0%	42.9%	14.3%	89.5 mph	14.0°
Curveball	10	.300	.300	.264	27.8%	10.0%	30.0%	0.0%	87.7 mph	4.9°
Changeup	32	.221	.479	.334	38.3%	25.0%	29.4%	14.1%	84.3 mph	-2.3°
Four-seam	66	.276	.448	.373	28.2%	37.9%	54.3%	20.0%	94.8 mph	20.9°
Sinker	74	.311	.508	.394	18.5%	17.6%	53.8%	13.1%	92.5 mph	7.6°
Slider	78	.208	.417	.308	38.5%	26.9%	37.8%	19.0%	88.7 mph	14.6°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date

Expectedestimators not shown above

xBA

.352

xSLG

.671

Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above

Max EV

112.6

EV90

107.4

Launch angle

10.4°

Sweet-spot%

33.1%

Avg distance

295 ft

EV on barrels

106.1

EV on hard-hit

103.2

Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles

Z-Swing%

63.2%

O-Contact%

52.3%

Z-Contact%

81.1%

Contact%

70.2%

SwStr%

13.7%

CSW%

30.3%

In-zone%

45.1%

1st-pitch swing%

32.0%

2-strike K%

45.3%

Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%

7d xwOBA(con)

.515

7d K%

21.7%

7d Barrel%

20.0%

7d Whiff%

39.4%

14d xwOBA(con)

.512

14d K%

28.9%

14d Barrel%

17.6%

30d xwOBA(con)

.403

30d K%

24.3%

30d Barrel%

12.8%

By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state

0-0 xwOBA(con)

.423

Ahead xwOBA(con)

.419

Behind xwOBA(con)

.418

2-strike xwOBA(con)

.461

Ahead Whiff%

31.4%

2-strike Whiff%

26.4%

By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning

Bases empty

.371

RISP

.313

Loaded

.225

High leverage

.369

Clutch

.416

Innings 1-3

.307

Innings 4-6

.495

Innings 7+

.463

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Francisco Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · Jul 31, 2026 · +171

LOSS

Francisco Alvarez UNDER 0.5 Hits

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · Jul 6, 2026 · +126

LOSS

Browse the full archive →

Learn the betting side

How to bet on baseball: the complete MLB guide →Baseball's bets, from the run line to props, and the three things that move every number: pitching, the park, and the weather.How to read baseball stats for betting: OBP to xwOBA →A bettor's guide to baseball stats: what to read past the batting average and ERA, which numbers predict the future, and how Statcast measures it.MLB run line explained: baseball's 1.5-run spread →The run line is baseball's spread, fixed at 1.Betting MLB totals: pitchers, parks, and weather →An MLB over/under is set by three things: the starting pitchers, the ballpark, and the weather.