MLB · NL East

Francisco Alvarez

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

New York MetsCBats: R · Throws: R

FormSteadyPowerElite

The read

Elite power and contact quality, with plenty of swing-and-miss.

Prop hit rates

How often Francisco Alvarez has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
70%67%65%
Over 1.5▼ cold
0%20%16%
Over 2.5
0%0%1%

Home runs

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
10%20%13%

Total bases

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 1.5
30%43%33%
Over 2.5
10%20%14%
Over 3.5
10%20%13%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.248↓

OBP

.329

SLG

.425

OPS

.754

28%

Last 10: 7-for-34 (.206) · 1 HR · 16 K · 8 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 286 PA.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

xwOBA (con)

.430

Avg Exit V

90.1 mph

Barrel %

16.8%

Hard-Hit %

54.3%

Chase %

32.1%

Whiff %

30.2%

K %

27.6%

BB %

9.8%

Where he hits it

50%

Pull

31%

Center

20%

Oppo

Pull-air 32% of BIP · 94.8 mph · 34° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.653OPS75 PA

vs RHP.789OPS211 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type

All Four-seam Cutter Sinker Changeup Curveball Slider

Throws

Both Lefties Righties

Window

This season Last 30 days

Sort by

PA ↑BA SLG xwOBA Whiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%

Clear filters

4 pitches · this season · combined vs both hands

Pitch	PA↑	BA	SLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	Hard-hit%	Barrel%	Exit velo	Launch
Curveball	15	.333	.333	.261	27.4%	20.0%	31.1%	0.0%	86.0 mph	5.4°
Four-seam	68	.283	.467	.374	28.4%	38.2%	55.6%	22.2%	95.1 mph	20.8°
Sinker	75	.306	.500	.391	18.3%	17.3%	52.8%	12.9%	91.7 mph	8.0°
Slider	78	.208	.417	.308	39.0%	26.9%	37.8%	19.0%	88.7 mph	14.6°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date

Expectedestimators not shown above

xBA

.352

xSLG

.669

Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above

Max EV

112.6

EV90

107.6

Launch angle

10.8°

Sweet-spot%

33.5%

Avg distance

298 ft

EV on barrels

106.2

EV on hard-hit

103.2

Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles

Z-Swing%

62.8%

O-Contact%

52.2%

Z-Contact%

80.7%

Contact%

69.8%

SwStr%

13.9%

CSW%

30.6%

In-zone%

45.1%

1st-pitch swing%

31.4%

2-strike K%

46.8%

Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%

7d xwOBA(con)

.476

7d K%

42.1%

7d Barrel%

28.6%

7d Whiff%

37.9%

14d xwOBA(con)

.540

14d K%

34.2%

14d Barrel%

25.0%

30d xwOBA(con)

.459

30d K%

32.9%

30d Barrel%

18.2%

By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state

0-0 xwOBA(con)

.423

Ahead xwOBA(con)

.427

Behind xwOBA(con)

.420

2-strike xwOBA(con)

.456

Ahead Whiff%

31.5%

2-strike Whiff%

26.8%

By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning

Bases empty

.373

RISP

.295

Loaded

.180

High leverage

.367

Clutch

.401

Innings 1-3

.305

Innings 4-6

.500

Innings 7+

.455

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Francisco Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · Jul 31, 2026 · +171

LOSS

Francisco Alvarez UNDER 0.5 Hits

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · Jul 6, 2026 · +126

LOSS

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