MLB · AL Central

Gabriel Arias

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Cleveland Guardians3BBats: R · Throws: R

FormHotPowerAbove avg

The read

Elite power and contact quality, with plenty of swing-and-miss. Heating up over the last ten.

Prop hit rates

How often Gabriel Arias has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5▲ hot
70%60%57%
Over 1.5▲ hot
30%20%18%
Over 2.5
0%3%3%

Home runs

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5▼ cold
0%10%13%

Total bases

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 1.5
30%30%33%
Over 2.5
10%17%18%
Over 3.5▼ cold
0%10%13%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.258↑

OBP

.294

SLG

.408

OPS

.702

41%

Last 10: 13-for-35 (.371) · 0 HR · 15 K · 2 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 126 PA.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

xwOBA (con)

.470

Avg Exit V

91.3 mph

Barrel %

10.4%

Hard-Hit %

46.3%

Chase %

37.6%

Whiff %

44.8%

K %

41.3%

BB %

4.8%

Where he hits it

39%

Pull

30%

Center

31%

Oppo

Pull-air 8% of BIP · 108.6 mph · 23° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.329OPS40 PA

vs RHP.880OPS86 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type

All Four-seam Sinker Changeup Curveball Slider

Throws

Both Lefties Righties

Window

This season Last 30 days

Sort by

PA ↑BA SLG xwOBA Whiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%

Clear filters

2 pitches · this season · combined vs both hands

Pitch	PA↑	BA	SLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	Hard-hit%	Barrel%	Exit velo	Launch
Curveball	11	.455	1.000	.581	43.7%	36.4%	69.7%	27.3%	97.6 mph	7.6°
Changeup	16	.188	.188	.166	62.5%	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	90.2 mph	15.5°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date

Expectedestimators not shown above

xBA

.408

xSLG

.696

Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above

Max EV

111.6

EV90

108.3

Launch angle

4.6°

Sweet-spot%

34.3%

Avg distance

245 ft

EV on barrels

107.6

EV on hard-hit

103.6

Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles

Z-Swing%

68.0%

O-Contact%

32.0%

Z-Contact%

70.2%

Contact%

55.2%

SwStr%

22.9%

CSW%

39.5%

In-zone%

45.9%

1st-pitch swing%

38.9%

2-strike K%

66.7%

Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%

7d xwOBA(con)

.282

7d K%

29.4%

7d Barrel%

0.0%

7d Whiff%

47.1%

14d xwOBA(con)

.341

14d K%

41.4%

14d Barrel%

6.7%

30d xwOBA(con)

.480

30d K%

41.3%

30d Barrel%

9.1%

By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state

0-0 xwOBA(con)

.651

Ahead xwOBA(con)

.515

Behind xwOBA(con)

.370

2-strike xwOBA(con)

.351

Ahead Whiff%

52.2%

2-strike Whiff%

44.9%

By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning

Bases empty

.401

RISP

.292

Loaded

.350

High leverage

.237

Clutch

.494

Innings 1-3

.411

Innings 4-6

.575

Innings 7+

.418

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Gabriel Arias OVER 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays · Jul 25, 2026 · -139

WIN

Gabriel Arias OVER 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays · Jul 24, 2026 · -123

WIN

Gabriel Arias OVER 0.5 Total Bases

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins · Jul 12, 2026 · -135

WIN

Gabriel Arias OVER 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins · Jul 11, 2026 · -107

WIN

Gabriel Arias OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros · Jun 20, 2026 · +163

WIN

Browse the full archive →

Learn the betting side

How to bet on baseball: the complete MLB guide →Baseball's bets, from the run line to props, and the three things that move every number: pitching, the park, and the weather.How to read baseball stats for betting: OBP to xwOBA →A bettor's guide to baseball stats: what to read past the batting average and ERA, which numbers predict the future, and how Statcast measures it.MLB run line explained: baseball's 1.5-run spread →The run line is baseball's spread, fixed at 1.Betting MLB totals: pitchers, parks, and weather →An MLB over/under is set by three things: the starting pitchers, the ballpark, and the weather.