MLB · NL Central

Nathan Church

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

St. Louis CardinalsOFBats: L · Throws: L

FormSteadyPowerBelow avg

The read

League-average power.

Prop hit rates

How often Nathan Church has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5▼ cold
30%33%47%
Over 1.5
10%10%18%
Over 2.5
0%0%3%

Home runs

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
0%10%8%

Total bases

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 1.5▼ cold
10%17%28%
Over 2.5▼ cold
0%10%14%
Over 3.5▼ cold
0%10%10%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.225

OBP

.267

SLG

.351

OPS

.618

21%

Last 10: 6-for-27 (.222) · 0 HR · 5 K · 1 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 296 PA.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

xwOBA (con)

.327

Avg Exit V

84.6 mph

Barrel %

7.4%

Hard-Hit %

36.4%

Chase %

45.5%

Whiff %

21.4%

K %

20.6%

BB %

4.7%

Where he hits it

42%

Pull

31%

Center

27%

Oppo

Pull-air 26% of BIP · 96.1 mph · 29° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.617OPS66 PA

vs RHP.619OPS230 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type

All Four-seam Cutter Sinker Changeup Curveball Slider

Throws

Both Lefties Righties

Window

This season Last 30 days

Sort by

PA ↓BA SLG xwOBA Whiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%

Clear filters

6 pitches · this season · vs right-handed pitchers

Pitch	PA↓	BA	SLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	Hard-hit%	Barrel%	Exit velo	Launch
Four-seam	68	.230	.295	.302	20.2%	26.5%	39.1%	6.5%	88.3 mph	12.3°
Changeup	67	.212	.273	.250	25.6%	22.4%	28.3%	3.8%	83.0 mph	12.0°
Slider	42	.179	.385	.207	24.6%	23.8%	26.5%	5.9%	82.7 mph	20.2°
Curveball	19	.210	.316	.212	21.6%	21.1%	29.4%	0.0%	87.0 mph	15.2°
Cutter	15	.385	.923	.403	16.2%	6.7%	38.5%	7.7%	87.7 mph	5.8°
Sinker	15	.154	.385	.504	10.0%	0.0%	53.8%	23.1%	92.8 mph	1.5°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date

Expectedestimators not shown above

xBA

.302

xSLG

.469

Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above

Max EV

110.1

EV90

102.4

Launch angle

10.5°

Sweet-spot%

35.0%

Avg distance

327 ft

EV on barrels

103.2

EV on hard-hit

101.2

Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles

Z-Swing%

72.9%

O-Contact%

70.2%

Z-Contact%

84.7%

Contact%

78.6%

SwStr%

12.5%

CSW%

24.9%

In-zone%

46.6%

1st-pitch swing%

36.1%

2-strike K%

36.5%

Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%

7d xwOBA(con)

.350

7d K%

22.2%

7d Barrel%

7.7%

7d Whiff%

32.6%

14d xwOBA(con)

.310

14d K%

18.9%

14d Barrel%

3.6%

30d xwOBA(con)

.278

30d K%

18.8%

30d Barrel%

3.3%

By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state

0-0 xwOBA(con)

.305

Ahead xwOBA(con)

.357

Behind xwOBA(con)

.274

2-strike xwOBA(con)

.317

Ahead Whiff%

20.8%

2-strike Whiff%

17.6%

By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning

Bases empty

.244

RISP

.277

Loaded

.000

High leverage

.260

Clutch

.333

Innings 1-3

.354

Innings 4-6

.301

Innings 7+

.335

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Nathan Church OVER 1.5 Total Bases

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · Jul 31, 2026 · +220

WIN

Nathan Church OVER 0.5 Hits

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LOSS

Nathan Church OVER 0.5 Hits

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals · Jul 6, 2026 · -143

WIN

Nathan Church OVER 0.5 Hits

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