MLB · AL East

Nathan Lukes

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Toronto Blue JaysOFBats: L · Throws: R

FormColdPowerPoor

The read

Contact-oriented with limited power, with a low-strikeout, contact-first approach. Cooling off over the last ten.

Prop hit rates

How often Nathan Lukes has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5▼ cold
20%47%57%
Over 1.5
20%23%23%
Over 2.5
0%0%5%

Home runs

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5
0%7%6%

Total bases

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 1.5▼ cold
20%30%33%
Over 2.5
10%10%14%
Over 3.5
10%10%10%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.264↓

OBP

.321

SLG

.366

OPS

.687

14%

Last 10: 4-for-32 (.125) · 0 HR · 4 K · 4 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 277 PA.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

xwOBA (con)

.296

Avg Exit V

85.0 mph

Barrel %

0.9%

Hard-Hit %

29.6%

Chase %

35.3%

Whiff %

15.0%

K %

14.1%

BB %

6.1%

Where he hits it

41%

Pull

28%

Center

31%

Oppo

Pull-air 29% of BIP · 88.7 mph · 40° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.359OPS44 PA

vs RHP.747OPS233 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type

All Four-seam Cutter Sinker Changeup Curveball Slider

Throws

Both Lefties Righties

Window

This season Last 30 days

Sort by

PA ↑BA SLG xwOBA Whiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%

Clear filters

5 pitches · this season · combined vs both hands

Pitch	PA↑	BA	SLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	Hard-hit%	Barrel%	Exit velo	Launch
Cutter	18	.412	.412	.304	17.0%	16.7%	28.6%	0.0%	83.5 mph	20.9°
Curveball	26	.308	.654	.347	14.3%	11.5%	43.5%	0.0%	87.0 mph	14.6°
Slider	40	.250	.505	.316	25.3%	17.5%	33.4%	3.1%	86.0 mph	12.4°
Sinker	57	.196	.216	.250	10.1%	15.8%	18.3%	0.0%	87.7 mph	-1.2°
Four-seam	84	.285	.337	.287	14.6%	15.5%	33.0%	0.0%	84.9 mph	15.4°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date

Expectedestimators not shown above

xBA

.300

xSLG

.388

Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above

Max EV

107.5

EV90

100.3

Launch angle

10.1°

Sweet-spot%

30.1%

Avg distance

308 ft

EV on barrels

101.6

EV on hard-hit

99.5

Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles

Z-Swing%

65.3%

O-Contact%

80.3%

Z-Contact%

87.6%

Contact%

85.0%

SwStr%

7.5%

CSW%

23.5%

In-zone%

49.2%

1st-pitch swing%

27.7%

2-strike K%

26.5%

Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%

7d xwOBA(con)

.192

7d K%

5.3%

7d Barrel%

0.0%

7d Whiff%

9.4%

14d xwOBA(con)

.233

14d K%

11.9%

14d Barrel%

0.0%

30d xwOBA(con)

.233

30d K%

9.9%

30d Barrel%

0.0%

By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state

0-0 xwOBA(con)

.238

Ahead xwOBA(con)

.305

Behind xwOBA(con)

.315

2-strike xwOBA(con)

.276

Ahead Whiff%

12.2%

2-strike Whiff%

10.8%

By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning

Bases empty

.310

RISP

.256

Loaded

.417

High leverage

.345

Clutch

.330

Innings 1-3

.295

Innings 4-6

.271

Innings 7+

.323

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Nathan Lukes OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox · Jun 18, 2026 · +145

WIN

Nathan Lukes OVER 1.5 Total Bases

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays · Jun 12, 2026 · +195

LOSS

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