MLB · AL East

Victor Mesa Jr.

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Tampa Bay RaysOFBats: L · Throws: L

FormSteadyPowerAbove avg

The read

Above-average power.

Prop hit rates

How often Victor Mesa Jr. has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5▲ hot
60%47%46%
Over 1.5
10%17%11%
Over 2.5
0%3%2%

Home runs

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5▲ hot
30%23%18%

Total bases

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 1.5▲ hot
40%33%25%
Over 2.5▲ hot
30%27%21%
Over 3.5▲ hot
30%23%18%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.215

OBP

.299

SLG

.430

OPS

.729

25%

Last 10: 7-for-34 (.206) · 3 HR · 11 K · 3 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 137 PA.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

xwOBA (con)

.367

Avg Exit V

85.8 mph

Barrel %

10.2%

Hard-Hit %

51.1%

Chase %

34.3%

Whiff %

21.3%

K %

24.8%

BB %

10.9%

Where he hits it

47%

Pull

27%

Center

26%

Oppo

Pull-air 38% of BIP · 95.9 mph · 35° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.724OPS26 PA

vs RHP.730OPS111 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type

All Four-seam Cutter Sinker Changeup Curveball Slider

Throws

Both Lefties Righties

Window

This season Last 30 days

Sort by

PA ↓BA SLG xwOBA Whiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%

6 pitches · this season · combined vs both hands

Pitch	PA↓	BA	SLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	Hard-hit%	Barrel%	Exit velo	Launch
Four-seam	47	.086	.172	.233	25.2%	29.8%	30.6%	4.4%	85.6 mph	36.7°
Changeup	23	.391	.565	.502	16.2%	13.0%	65.0%	10.0%	91.8 mph	5.2°
Slider	22	.273	.818	.309	17.8%	31.8%	33.6%	20.0%	84.9 mph	33.5°
Sinker	18	.239	.511	.328	7.7%	22.2%	41.7%	12.0%	86.3 mph	0.1°
Curveball	11	.100	.100	.276	30.4%	36.4%	33.3%	16.7%	89.7 mph	11.5°
Cutter	6	.333	.833	.282	23.5%	33.3%	25.0%	25.0%	83.3 mph	40.5°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date

Expectedestimators not shown above

xBA

.322

xSLG

.547

Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above

Max EV

109.1

EV90

105.1

Launch angle

19.4°

Sweet-spot%

33.0%

Avg distance

359 ft

EV on barrels

106.0

EV on hard-hit

101.5

Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles

Z-Swing%

76.5%

O-Contact%

66.7%

Z-Contact%

85.2%

Contact%

78.6%

SwStr%

11.4%

CSW%

22.8%

In-zone%

45.2%

1st-pitch swing%

43.8%

2-strike K%

43.4%

Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%

7d xwOBA(con)

.274

7d K%

35.7%

7d Barrel%

0.0%

7d Whiff%

26.5%

14d xwOBA(con)

.432

14d K%

30.3%

14d Barrel%

14.3%

30d xwOBA(con)

.327

30d K%

25.8%

30d Barrel%

10.0%

By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state

0-0 xwOBA(con)

.210

Ahead xwOBA(con)

.518

Behind xwOBA(con)

.285

2-strike xwOBA(con)

.412

Ahead Whiff%

19.5%

2-strike Whiff%

25.3%

By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning

Bases empty

.321

RISP

.320

Loaded

.300

High leverage

.267

Clutch

.470

Innings 1-3

.364

Innings 4-6

.383

Innings 7+

.351

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Victor Mesa Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays · Jul 31, 2026 · +164

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Victor Mesa Jr. OVER 0.5 Hits

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays · Jul 12, 2026 · -141

LOSS

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