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MLB · AL East

Victor Mesa Jr.

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Tampa Bay RaysOFBats: L · Throws: L
FormSteadyPowerAbove avg

The read

Above-average power.

Prop hit rates

How often Victor Mesa Jr. has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared
L10L30Season
  • Over 0.5
    50%43%44%
  • Over 1.5
    10%13%11%
  • Over 2.5
    0%3%2%

Home runs

share of games cleared
L10L30Season
  • Over 0.5
    20%20%18%

Total bases

share of games cleared
L10L30Season
  • Over 1.5
    30%30%24%
  • Over 2.5
    20%23%20%
  • Over 3.5
    20%20%18%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.210

OBP

.293

SLG

.419

OPS

.712

HR

8

K%

25%

Last 10: 7-for-34 (.206) · 3 HR · 11 K · 2 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 140 PA.

Metric
Percentile
Value
Rank
xwOBA (con)
.366
57
Avg Exit V
85.8 mph
24
Barrel %
10.0%
71
Hard-Hit %
51.1%
69
Chase %
34.5%
27
Whiff %
21.0%
62
K %
25.0%
33
BB %
10.7%
78

Where he hits it

10%LF14%LCF16%CF16%RCF30%RFPull →

46%

Pull

28%

Center

27%

Oppo

Pull-air 36% of BIP · 95.9 mph · 35° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.646OPS29 PA
vs RHP.730OPS111 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type
AllFour-seamCutterSinkerChangeupCurveballSlider
Throws
BothLeftiesRighties
Window
This seasonLast 30 days
Sort by
PA ↑BASLGxwOBAWhiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%
Clear filters

2 pitches · this season · combined vs both hands

PitchPA↑BASLGxwOBAWhiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%Exit veloLaunch
Cutter7.286.714.34222.2%28.6%40.0%20.0%86.6 mph35.4°
Sinker18.239.511.3287.7%22.2%41.7%12.0%86.3 mph0.1°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date
Expectedestimators not shown above
xBA
.321
xSLG
.545
Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above
Max EV
109.1
EV90
104.9
Launch angle
18.6°
Sweet-spot%
33.3%
Avg distance
359 ft
EV on barrels
106.0
EV on hard-hit
101.4
Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles
Z-Swing%
76.5%
O-Contact%
66.3%
Z-Contact%
85.7%
Contact%
79.0%
SwStr%
11.3%
CSW%
22.6%
In-zone%
45.7%
1st-pitch swing%
42.9%
2-strike K%
43.6%
Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%
7d xwOBA(con)
.287
7d K%
30.8%
7d Barrel%
0.0%
7d Whiff%
21.9%
14d xwOBA(con)
.410
14d K%
34.4%
14d Barrel%
10.5%
30d xwOBA(con)
.349
30d K%
27.9%
30d Barrel%
10.5%
By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state
0-0 xwOBA(con)
.210
Ahead xwOBA(con)
.506
Behind xwOBA(con)
.289
2-strike xwOBA(con)
.411
Ahead Whiff%
19.0%
2-strike Whiff%
24.0%
By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning
Bases empty
.318
RISP
.309
Loaded
.300
High leverage
.264
Clutch
.470
Innings 1-3
.360
Innings 4-6
.383
Innings 7+
.351

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Victor Mesa Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays · Jul 31, 2026 · +164

LOSS

Victor Mesa Jr. OVER 0.5 Hits

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays · Jul 12, 2026 · -141

LOSS

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Learn the betting side

How to bet on baseball: the complete MLB guide →Baseball's bets, from the run line to props, and the three things that move every number: pitching, the park, and the weather.How to read baseball stats for betting: OBP to xwOBA →A bettor's guide to baseball stats: what to read past the batting average and ERA, which numbers predict the future, and how Statcast measures it.MLB run line explained: baseball's 1.5-run spread →The run line is baseball's spread, fixed at 1.Betting MLB totals: pitchers, parks, and weather →An MLB over/under is set by three things: the starting pitchers, the ballpark, and the weather.