MLB · AL East

Victor Mesa Jr.

Betting stats, Statcast splits, spray chart & prop matchups

Tampa Bay RaysOFBats: L · Throws: L

FormSteadyPowerAbove avg

The read

Elite power and contact quality.

Prop hit rates

How often Victor Mesa Jr. has cleared each prop line over his last 10 and 30 games and the season.

Hits

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5▼ cold
30%47%44%
Over 1.5
10%17%13%
Over 2.5
0%3%2%

Home runs

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 0.5▼ cold
0%20%17%

Total bases

share of games cleared

L10L30Season

Over 1.5▼ cold
10%33%25%
Over 2.5▼ cold
10%27%21%
Over 3.5▼ cold
10%23%19%

Research any hitter with the prop-research tool.

At a glance

AVG

.207↓

OBP

.285

SLG

.430

OPS

.714

24%

Last 10: 6-for-33 (.182) · 0 HR · 9 K · 2 BB · MLB avg .247 / .318 / .404

Power & contact quality

Percentile rank vs qualified MLB hitters this season. The dot is this player; further right is better on every metric. Based on 151 PA.

Metric

Percentile

Value

Rank

xwOBA (con)

.371

Avg Exit V

86.1 mph

Barrel %

12.0%

Hard-Hit %

50.0%

Chase %

34.8%

Whiff %

21.4%

K %

23.8%

BB %

9.9%

Where he hits it

47%

Pull

27%

Center

26%

Oppo

Pull-air 35% of BIP · 94.0 mph · 36° LA

Share of batted balls by field sector. The pull / center / oppo split and pull-side fly-ball power sit below the fan.

Matchups

vs LHP.646OPS29 PA

vs RHP.731OPS122 PA

By pitch type. Filter by pitch, opposing hand, or recency. Green beats league average, red falls short.

Pitch type

All Four-seam Cutter Sinker Changeup Curveball Slider

Throws

Both Lefties Righties

Window

This season Last 30 days

Sort by

PA ↑BA SLG xwOBA Whiff%K%Hard-hit%Barrel%

Clear filters

3 pitches · this season · combined vs both hands

Pitch	PA↑	BA	SLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	K%	Hard-hit%	Barrel%	Exit velo	Launch
Cutter	7	.286	.714	.342	22.2%	28.6%	40.0%	20.0%	86.6 mph	35.4°
Slider	24	.250	.750	.298	17.8%	29.2%	35.9%	17.7%	86.3 mph	34.7°
Four-seam	53	.073	.147	.258	24.9%	26.4%	38.8%	10.4%	87.7 mph	33.8°

Full Statcast profile

Batted ball · discipline · situationalSeason-to-date

Expectedestimators not shown above

xBA

.319

xSLG

.563

Batted ballAvg EV / Barrel% / Hard-hit% shown above

Max EV

110.4

EV90

104.9

Launch angle

17.9°

Sweet-spot%

33.0%

Avg distance

347 ft

EV on barrels

105.8

EV on hard-hit

101.5

Plate disciplineChase% & Whiff% shown above as percentiles

Z-Swing%

76.7%

O-Contact%

64.8%

Z-Contact%

86.1%

Contact%

78.6%

SwStr%

11.5%

CSW%

22.9%

In-zone%

45.8%

1st-pitch swing%

43.7%

2-strike K%

42.7%

Rolling formxwOBA(con) / K% / BB% / Barrel% / Whiff%

7d xwOBA(con)

.349

7d K%

18.2%

7d Barrel%

16.7%

7d Whiff%

23.4%

14d xwOBA(con)

.331

14d K%

25.8%

14d Barrel%

13.6%

30d xwOBA(con)

.393

30d K%

22.9%

30d Barrel%

15.9%

By countxwOBA(con) / Whiff% by count state

0-0 xwOBA(con)

.247

Ahead xwOBA(con)

.506

Behind xwOBA(con)

.270

2-strike xwOBA(con)

.413

Ahead Whiff%

19.3%

2-strike Whiff%

23.8%

By situationxwOBA(con) by base state + leverage + inning

Bases empty

.328

RISP

.285

Loaded

.300

High leverage

.259

Clutch

.470

Innings 1-3

.373

Innings 4-6

.374

Innings 7+

.367

Statcast-derived from our v8 pitch corpus, refreshed daily. xwOBA (con) = xwOBA on balls in play. Percentages are share of the relevant opportunity.

Recent SkegBets picks

Victor Mesa Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays · Jul 31, 2026 · +164

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Victor Mesa Jr. OVER 0.5 Hits

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